COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 15.10.26

There were five by-elections this week, including a Cotswold vacancy that was decided on the unorthodox polling day of Tuesday.  The four seats being decided on Thursday consisted of two Lib Dem defences, one Reform and one free-for-all.

Reform continued to strike out for a fourth successive week, losing yet another seat to Labour.  Restore Britain were present again, as they have been in three out of the four Reform losses to Labour during this period.  Reform's slide coincides with a poll boost for Labour, who are now holding and gaining seats under Burnham.  No wonder Starmer has skulked off to do his NGO thing...

Higher Kinnerton, Flintshire County Council

Ind: 566 (91.3%) New

Con: 21 (3.4%) New

Ref: 21 (3.4%) New

Hrt: 10 (1.6%) New

Ind: 2 (0.3%) New

Ind GAIN from Ind

This vacancy was triggered in somewhat murky circumstances.  While Flintshire Council has stated that the incumbent resigned, other sources suggest that he passed away.  Of course, he could have resigned his seat and then passed away.  Either way, we had a free-for-all to replace an unaligned councillor, who was elected unopposed in 2022.  Independent candidates are very popular in Flintshire, with as many independent councillors as those belonging to the largest party - currently Labour.  Labour run Flintshire alongside 13 of these independents, but they did not contest this rural ward on Thursday.  In fact there were no left-wing parties standing.  Reform, the Conservatives and Heritage went up against two independents (one of which from local group the 'Flintshire People's Voice').  The Flintshire People's Voice triumphed, while Reform and the Tories tied for second place a considerable way off.

Karl - Ind GAIN (Flintshire People's Voice) ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Shepshed, Leicestershire County Council

Lab: 1,163 (32.8%) +14.9%

Ref: 1,110 (31.3%) -13.6%

Con: 819 (23.1%) -2.4%

Res: 228 (6.4%) New

LDm: 115 (3.2%) -3.4%

Grn: 112 (3.2%) -1.9%

Lab GAIN from Ref

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, citing family commitments.  She had been elected in May 2025 by a considerable margin over the sitting Conservative.  Reform demolished the Tories in that election, taking 24 seats from the party that had controlled the council outright since 2001.  However, the newcomers were three seats short of a majority and have run the council as a minority administration since.  Reform's loss in this small market town on Thursday did not affect the status quo with regards to the administration.  As we have repeatedly seen in recent weeks, the addition of a Restore Britain candidate spells disaster for Reform.  Reform may well have held off Labour, were it not for the 228 votes that went to Restore.  Reform lost by 53 votes.

Karl - Con GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref HOLD ✘

Bradninch, Mid Devon District Council

LDm: 476 (72.6%) -9.6%

Ref: 91 (13.9%) New

Con: 37 (5.6%) -0.6%

Lab: 31 (4.7%) -6.9%

Grn: 21 (3.2%) New

LDm HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, who is relocating to the United States for work.  He was previously the council leader, but resigned that post back in May in preparation for his big move.  The Lib Dems have a strong grip on the council following the 2023 election, from which they emerged with 34 of the council's 42 seats.  This ended more than two decades of no overall control.  The party romped home in this rural ward in 2023 against Labour and the Conservatives.  A dip in vote share, as Reform jumped straight in at second, wasn't enough for the Lib Dems to cop defeat here.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Salisbury Milford, Wiltshire Council

LDm: 759 (45.6%) +1.8%

Con: 605 (36.4%) +12.4%

Ref: 189 (11.4%) -6.7%

Lab: 110 (6.6%) -2.1%

LDm HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent for 'personal reasons'.  This was probably the most important by-election of the night, because its outcome could have affected what parties run the council.  In 2025, the Conservatives lost outright control of the council for the first time in 25 years.  The Lib Dems emerged the largest party and currently run the council as a minority administration.  They had to rely on support from independent councillors in order to form that administration, but defeat on Thursday to either Reform or the Tories would have tipped the numbers against them.  The Conservatives were four seats behind the Lib Dems and looked set to form either a minority administration of their own - with Reform support - or a formal coalition with Reform.  The scene for this decider was this upmarket ward that covers the enture eastern side of the city of Salisbury.  The Greens finished last here in 2025 with 81 votes and did not contest this time around.  The Tories delivered a valiant effort to try and take the seat - and the council - but the Lib Dem machine was too much for them.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

The following by-election was held on Tuesday.

Rodborough, Stroud District Council

Lab: 697 (47.0%) +13.2%

Grn: 470 (31.7%) +1.5%

Ref: 191 (12.9%) New

Con: 103 (6.9%) -3.9%

LDm: 23 (1.5%) New

Lab HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, on health grounds.  This semi-rural ward to the south of Stroud has very much been a battle between Labour and the Greens in recent years, much like control of the council.  Stroud has been in no overall control since 2012, much of that period having a minority Labour administration.  However, since 2022 it has been a minority Green administration at the helm and they remain two seats away from outright control after Tursday's result.  With no independent standing this time, there had been a significant amount of independent votes up for grabs.  Labour scored another impressive result, extending their lead over the Greens and reflecting their recent national polling.  Reform bested the Tories as the best of the rest.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✔

Rich - Grn GAIN ✘

Karl beat Richey for the third successive week to close the lead to three points.  Karl has been one short of a perfect score two weeks on the trot.

MEME MONDAY #104

Open borders and its disastrous consequences were prominent themes last week...

Mon 5 Oct - 3,302 shares

Tue 6 Oct - 529 shares

Tue 6 Oct - 231 shares

Tue 6 Oct - 4 shares

Wed 7 Oct - 89 shares

Thu 8 Oct - 38 shares

Sat 10 Oct - 21 shares

Sun 11 Oct - 13 shares

Sun 11 Oct - 115 shares

Another four editions of Diversity Is Strength were published last week, the series that will probably never end...

BOATWATCH #80

As the mild Autumn weather continues, the boat colonists continue to flock to the UK in the customary pre-winter dash.  Twenty boat loads were collected by collaborator vessels last week, delivering into our nation the largest number of weekly arrivals since mid-June.  We don't know who they are, where they are from or what other crimes they will commit against our people - asides from the criminal act of entering this country illegally in the first place.

The Uniparty politicians who have aided and abetted this seaborne invasion for eight years ought to one day answer for their actions in a court of law.  That is, of course, assuming that British law and British people still exist...

Total = 1,484 (increase of 642 from previous week)

BY-ELECTIONS 08.10.26

We had a major by-election this week, that to replace our dear departed Prime Minister.  Yes, that's right, it was the by-election to replace Sir Keir - despite the plank having previously promised to see out his Westminster term in full.  There were also four council seats up for grabs.

UK PARLIAMENT BY-ELECTION

Holborn and St Pancras

Sagal Abdi-Wali (Lab) 12,292 (45.1%) -3.7%

Zack Polanski (Grn) 8,928 (32.8%) +22.4%

Ewan Cameron (Con) 1,922 (7.1%) -0.1%

Peter Newman (Ref) 1,612 (5.9%) -0.2%

Patrick Stillman (LDm) 924 (3.4%) -2.4%

Tyler Johnson (Res) 692 (2.5%) New

George Galloway (WPB) 314 (1.1%) New

Briony Kapoor (REU) 236 (0.8%) New

Barmy Brunch (Loon) 87 (0.3%) New

Helen Spiby-Vann (CPA) 63 (0.2%) New

Clare Fischer (Clm) 51 (0.2%) New

Ben Walker (UKIP) 51 (0.2%) New

Ketankumar Pipaliya (UKV) 23 (0.1%) New

Jonathan Silberman (CmL) 9 (<0.1%) New

Tom Darwood 7 (<0.1%) New

Lab HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of a vile man, ostensibly - and ominously - to concentrate his efforts on 'international affairs'.  Like Blair and Johnson before him, Starmer went as far as he possibly could in decimating our nation, before jumping ship to spread the poison around the world on behalf of the globalist project.  Odds on favourite to replace him as an MP was a Somali refugee and the current leader of Camden London Borough Council.  She was only appointed council leader in May, after Labour had clung onto the council despite losing 17 council seats - 10 of which to the Greens, who are more dominant to the east of Camden.  Two local authorities over they demolished Labour in May to take control of Hackney (which now has a pink haired Alphabet Person for its council leader).  As to be expected for a Westminster by-election, the ballot paper in Holborn and St Pancras was a crowded affair on Thursday with 15 candidates vying for the position.  Candidates from across the political spectrum were represented, but with the vacancy located in woke north London this was always going to be a left-wing tussle, as Green Party leader Zack Polanski also looked to succeed Starmer.  As widely expected, Polanksi failed, but the Greens exceeded expectations.  They more than doubled their vote from 2024, slashing Labour's majority from 11,572 to just 3,364.  The Greens moved up into second, the spot vacated by hard left independent Andrew Feinstein, who stood here in 2024 and did a little majority slashing of his own.  All the main parties moved up a place, while maintaining the same 2024 order - the Tories, followed by Reform and the Lib Dems.  However, the Lib Dems lost their deposit on this occasion.  Reformers may feel slightly aggrieved with Restore, whose 692 votes probably robbed them of third place.  By alphabetical coincidence, the candidates for Restore Britain, Rejoin EU and Reform UK were all sandwiched together slap bang in the middle of the ballot paper, all complete with their varying shades of blue logos.  Rejoin EU campaigners may not get hounded and screamed at by crazed leftists when they are out leafleting, but they finished a pitiful eighth, one place ahead of the Raving Loonies and less than half the vote of Restore.  George Galloway, who was absent from the count (and the UK), finished in seventh and had little bearing on the result - as some Greens had feared.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✔

Rich - Lab HOLD ✔

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS

We also had four council contests, with a defence each for the SNP, the Conservatives, Labour and Reform.  The two left-wing parties held, while Reform and the Tories slumped to defeat.  It was another disappointing week for Reform, who are now three weeks without either a successful defence or a gain.  That slump has coincided with a rise in Restore Britain candidates, which is clearly now a major thorn in Reform's side.

While Labour didn't perform particularly well in the Westminster seat, they scored a couple of double digit rises in council vote share - one south of the river and one in the Midlands.  These kind of results were unthinkable under Starmer and are reflective of Labour's rising poll numbers.  The downward slide of Reform on one side and the Greens on the other suggests we may not see the back of Burnham for years to come...

Midstocket/Rosemount, Aberdeen City Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 861 (27.9%) -9.9%

Con: 743 (24.1%) -0.5%

Lab: 535 (17.3%) -4.2%

Grn: 330 (10.7%) +1.4%

Ref: 323 (10.5%) New

LDm: 192 (6.2%) -0.7%

Ind: 67 (2.2%) New

Ind: 37 (1.2%) New

SNP HOLD (elected at stage 8)

Triggered by the death of the 71-year-old incumbent, who had represented this ward just north east of the city centre since 2007.  Aberdeen used to be solid Labour territory, with the party in control from 1980 up to 2002.  It has since been in the limbo land of no overall control, with multiple coalition authorities, including a highly unusual four year stretch of Lab-Con partnership.  The council has also had minority Lib Dem and SNP administrations, with these two parties sharing power since 2022.  The SNP managed to hold this seat on Thursday, despite an almost double digit drop in vote share.  There was a small swing to their pro-indy comrades the Greens, but surprisingly there appeared to be an additional swing to Reform UK.

Karl - SNP HOLD ✔

Rich - SNP HOLD ✔

Kilburn, Denby, Holbrook & Horsley, Amber Valley Borough Council

Grn: 674 (29.5%) +4.0%

Ref: 617 (27.0%) New

Con: 386 (16.9%) -15.2%

Lab: 364 (15.9%) -6.1%

Res: 246 (10.8%) New

Grn GAIN from Con

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, for unspecified reasons.  This rural ward is sandwiched between the market towns of Belper and Heanor, in a borough that has bounced between Tory, Labour  and no overall control since the 1980s.  The longest period of unbroken control was a 14 year Conservative run between 2000 and 2014.  It has gone blue twice more since then, but is currently run by a minority Labour administration.  There was a by-election here in May 2025, in which Labour were pushed into third by the Greens.  There was no independent or Lib Dem standing on Thursday, which probably helped the Greens score a surprise gain.  The Tories slumped to third, while Restore Britain once again had a devastating impact on Reform UK.  This would have undoubtedly been the first Reform gain for several weeks, but the vote was split yet again.

Karl - Con HOLD ✘

Rich - Con HOLD ✘

Myatt's Fields, Lambeth London Borough Council

Lab: 1,026 (46.7%) +10.3%

Grn: 815 (37.1%) -2.0%

LDm: 189 (8.6%) +1.5%

Con: 74 (3.4%) -1.8%

Ref: 58 (2.6%) -2.7%

CPA: 26 (1.2%) New

SPGB: 9 (0.4%) New

Lab HOLD

While all the attention was north of the river in Camden, there was a council seat up for grabs south of it - and another Labour defence.  This contest was triggered by the death of the incumbent, who died from cancer.  Her age is not known, but judging from photographs she was probably in her 60s.  This is a fairly mixed ward, with high levels of deprivation in some parts and heavily regenerated or 'gentrified' parts.  Like most London wards, the native population is a minority, but not overwhelmingly so.  The Greens gained one of two Labour seats here in May, with the Labour incumbent clinging onto her seat by just 17 votes.  There was no independent or Trade Unionist and Socialist candidate on Thursday, but entering the fray were the Socialist Party of Great Britain and the Christian Peoples Alliance.  The newcomers received pitiful numbers of votes, with Reform and the Tories not far ahead as the the left-wing frontrunners battled it out.  Once again, the Greens slipped further away from Labour, unable to repeat their May 7 gain in this ward.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✔

Rich - Lab HOLD ✔

Town, Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council

Lab: 431 (46.2%) +18.0%

Ref: 249 (26.7%) -0.4%

Grn: 115 (12.3%) -9.2%

Con: 110 (11.8%) -4.3%

LDm: 27 (2.9%) -4.0%

Lab GAIN from Ref

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, citing various reasons, but stupidity appeared to be a significant factor.  She was elected on May 7 this year, but upon being informed of her victory (apparently she did not even attend the count) she rocked up at the council house for Kidsgrove Town Council - only to be informed she had not been elected to that authority.  She later sent her resignation letter to that same council and complained that she had received 'very little to no training for this role' (it is not clear if this was a dig at Reform or Newcastle-under-Lyne Council, or a combination of both).  Kidsgrove Council eventually forwarded her resignation to Newcastle-under-Lyme Council and she officially left office citing health reasons.  Reform took control of the council in May, ending a five year run of Conservative control, but the council is set to be abolished in 2028 anyway.  Perhaps just as well, judging by Thursday's result.  Reform did not disgrace themselves, but an 18 per cent jump in Labour support does not bode well.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✔

Rich - Lab GAIN ✔

Richey led Karl by five points going into this week's round of the head-to-head and that didn't change with the pair having gone like-for-like across the board.

ZACK'S MOUNTAIN TO CLIMB

Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali and Zack Polanski are the front-runners to replace
Keir Starmer

Heard the one about the Muslim and the Jew?  The fight to replace Keir Starmer - in a by-election he said he wouldn't trigger - will come down to a straight fight on the left between the Greens and Labour.  Zack Polanski's decision to stand was a bold move for a leader whose party has been in freefall since May's elections.  Despite Labour defending a seat they have held since its creation in 1983, it feels as if they have much less to lose than Polanski's crazy gang.

The Greens have thrown everything at this seat, including the familiar overtures to the Muslim community, which make up a significant proportion of Holborn and St Pancras.  However, the chances of the Muslim vote swinging it for the Greens - as it did in Gorton and Denton earlier this year - is highly unlikely.  Polanski can make as many promo videos in Urdu as he likes, but his party have played the Muslim card too often and they're wising up.  Thousands of Muslims were hoodwinked into voting Green in that Manchester by-election, many of whom only found out later that the party they backed promotes some very liberal policies towards the Alphabet People and drugs.

Less liberal in his approach is George Galloway, who leads the Workers Party of Britain despite having not set foot in Britain for more than a year.  His candidacy upset many Green activists, because it fragments the left-wing vote further and the Greens need every vote they can get in this election to avert humiliation.  Galloway is currently globetrotting in protest at his detention at Gatwick Airport in September 2025, vowing not to return to the UK without assurances that the same disgraceful act is not carried out again (his devices were confiscated, but he was never charged with any crime).  Such is life in Labour's Orwellian Britain.

While Galloway is not present in Holborn and St Pancras, he has a small band of ardent supporters campaigning on his behalf - and unlike the Greens, they have no Alphabet agenda or liberal drugs policies to explain away.

The truth is that the Greens needn't fret over the Workers Party.  The latter is unlikely to siphon off enough votes to have any bearing on the result.  The bookies have Labour's Abdi-Wali as an odds-on dead cert.  At the time of writing, Ladbrokes have her at 1/33, with Polanski limping behind on 12/1.  Some online bookies have Labour at 1/50.

The threat to Labour from the Greens has been effectively demolished by Andy Burnham's coronation.  If Starmer had managed to cling onto power over the summer, perhaps up to his defeat in a prolonged and divisive leadership contest, the Greens would still be flying high.  His prompt departure and Burnham's swift ascendance was a huge blow for Polanski - and there could be one final blow if Starmer's successor increases Labour's majority on Thursday night.  Starmer's majority was slashed in 2024 as the party faced a Muslim backlash in cities and mill towns over Palestine, but with Burnham (and even Ed Miliband) masterminding a more Palestine friendly stance, there is a very real chance that their Somali candidate can regain voters previously lost.

There's adopting a Palestine friendly stance and then there's adopting the 'Zionism is racism' stance that has led to more ridicule for the absurd Greens.  Polanski did himself no favours by sitting on the fence and abstaining from the party motion, displaying a lack of leadership and direction.  The Greens really are their own worst enemies.

Holborn and St Pancras 2024 general election result

Keir Starmer (Lab) 18,884 (48.9%) -17.4%

Andrew Feinstein (Ind) 7,312 (18.9%) New

David Stansell (Grn) 4,030 (10.4%) +6.4%

Mehreen Malik (Con) 2,776 (7.2%) -8.0%

David Roberts (Ref) 2,371 (6.1%) +4.2%

Charlie Clinton (LDm) 2,236 (5.8%) -6.5%

Wais Islam (Ind) 636 (1.6%) New

Nick the Incredible Flying Brick (Loon) 162 (0.4%) New

John Poynton (UKIP) 75 (0.2%) -0.1%

Tom Scripps (SocE) 61 (0.2) +0.1%

Senthil Kumar (Ind) 40 (0.1%) New

Bobby Smith (Ind) 19 (0.0%) New

MEME MONDAY #103

We promised you more memes this week and Karl has delivered!

Mon 28 Sep - 155 shares

Mon 28 Sep - 717 shares.  We still don't know what the 'major incident'
was, in fact as the week drew on it appeared increasingly unlikely that
there was no 'major incident' at all!

Mon 28 Sep - 19 shares.  This hideous individual was
captured screaming at someone leafleting for a right wing
party (possibly Restore Britain) in Camden for the
forthcoming Westminster by-election to replace Starmer.
She had strong single crazed cat lady vibes, so Karl
asked AI to add some cats.  Imagine getting to this age
and still being a spiteful commie!

Mon 28 Sep - 267 shares.  We have since learned that there were no explosives
present at the Fairford incident, so why did the police make public statements
to the contrary?  Something stinks about the whole affair, but it certainly
caused great consternation when the suspects were released on bail.  The poor
lad who lashed out an empty dinghy is quite possibly going to spend Christmas
on remand.  If only our fighting age ancestors could see the state of this
country right now

Tue 29 Sep - 20 shares

Tue 29 Sep -3,721 shares.  This meme was viewed by more than half a
million Facebook users

Wed 30 Sep - 85 shares

Wed 30 Sep - 415 shares.  These remarks led to a cascade of mockery from
rural Britain and quite rightly so!

Fri 2 Oct - 21 shares

Fri 2 Oct - 0 shares.  Our current cover photo on the main Facebook page.
Neither of us own black Labs, but Richey does have an Alsatian

Sat 3 Oct - 84 shares.  Another attempted communist uprising, upon which the
Fifth Column hordes have pounced in order to create their own havoc, as they
now do at every opportunity (even on the back of major French football triumphs)

Sat 3 Oct - 70 shares.  Not one of ours, but it was too good not
to share.  We do hope this was not an AI creation and was a real
genuine chalkboard with a feisty pub landlord behind it!

Sun 4 Oct - 49 shares.  Pretty safe bet that some of these lads
will have reoffended by the time you read this

Sun 4 Oct - 20 shares.  The sandals give the game away.  Poor ducklings,
there can't be much meat on them, so why take them?

Sun 4 Oct - 103 shares.  We ended the week where we began, with hundreds
of young foreign men invading our shores, aided and abetted by the entire
weight of the British state

Three Facebook Stories were posted last week, all part of our 'Diversity Is Strength' series...

BOATWATCH #79

Last week's activity maintained the momentum of the previous week, although there were no beach landings.  There was little said of the small boats invasion during the Labour conference, but there was a big announcement just prior to it - the 'one in, one out' scam has been scrapped.

It is not clear whether Starmer's scheme did anything to stem crossings, but what it definitely achieved was around 1,500 migrants settling here for good.  It has been claimed that up to 1,500 colonists were returned to France as part of the scheme, but all that meant was that France sent the UK the same number of 'legitimate asylum seekers' who were simply given leave to remain.  'One in, one out' was a smoke and mirrors operation designed to simply continue the colonisation while the government claimed the opposite.

BBC News reported that the government would have liked the scheme to continue, "but felt it did not reach the desired scale".  That is, to say, they wanted thousands more to land and set up permanent shop.

Regardless of which half of the Uniparty is in power, the British government is your enemy.

Total = 842 (down 287 from previous week)

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 01.10.26

Six vacant seats were on Thursday, with two defences apiece for the Tories and Reform, one for Labour and a free-for-all.  For the second week in a row, three of the vacancies arose through the death of the incumbent.

It was a fairly mediocre week for Labour, with vote share down in three of the five seats the party contested.  Despite this, they emerged with three seats - including two gains from Reform in Northumberland.  One of the latter had been vacated by a hapless short-lived Reform councillor, giving Labour an easy ride to victory.  However, Labour were clearly helped across all three seats by the presence of Restore Britain candidates.  In the other Northumberland seat, Reform missed out by 60 votes, with Restore garnering 76 votes in last place.  In Blackpool, Reform missed out on a gain from Labour by just 39 votes, with Restore in third place with 79 votes.

Restore Britain are also eating into Reform's overall polling figures, extending Labour's lead in the polls.  Whereas Reform were leading every single poll with Starmer at the helm, they have only led one poll in the last three weeks, and that was by a solitary point.  In one recent poll, Reform trailed Labour by six points.  In that very same poll, Restore garnered six points.

It is now more than two weeks since Reform last held or won a council seat.  These are troubling times for Nigel Farage's party and there are worrying signs that the next general election could turn out to be just another Lab-Con Uniparty battle after all.  That likelihood is made all the more likely by the entrance of Rupert Lowe's party.

Claremont, Blackpool Council

Lab: 458 (41.8%) -10.5%

Ref: 419 (38.2%) New

Res: 79 (7.2%) New

Con: 62 (5.7%) -15.9%

Grn: 44 (4.0%) New

LDm: 18 (1.6%) -10.4%

Ind: 16 (1.5%) New

Lab HOLD

Triggered by the death of the 86-year-old incumbent.  He was the UK's longest serving councillor at the time of his death, having served the same council ward for a continuous period of 53 years.  He was also Labour's first Blackpool council leader, from 1991-2000, and the party has maintained control ever since.  A fat lot of good Labour have done for this incredibly deprived ward just north of the town centre.  Despite rampant social problems, voters backed Labour again in 2023, with their candidates securing more than twice the vote of the Conservatives.  On Thursday, they clung onto this seat by just 39 votes, thanks to a split vote on the right.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Wick & East Caithness, Highland Council

(first preference votes)

LDm: 1,522 (50.4%) +20.6%

Ind: 714 (23.6%) New

SNP: 424 (14.0%) -11.3%

Ref: 283 (9.4%) New

Con: 79 (2.6%) -12.5%

LDm GAIN from Ind (elected at stage 1)

The most northern council ward on mainland Britain, which includes the famed village of John o'Groats.  The vacancy was triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, who was the first councillor to stand down in response to a very unsavoury scandal.  He was one of six members on the council's licencing committee that voted to allow a convicted rapist - currently serving more than six years for raping a teenager in the back of his cab - to keep his taxi licence.  Three others have also since resigned.  All three seats were up for grabs here in 2022 and they were split between the Lib Dems, SNP and the disgraced incumbent.  Labour dropped out altogether from Thursday's contest, while the Lib Dems stormed to victory with no need for secondary votes.  They finished more than a thousand votes ahead of the SNP.

Karl - LDm GAIN ✔

Rich - LDm GAIN ✔

Long Whatton & Diseworth, North West Leicestershire District Council

Con: 576 (55.5%) -4.6%

Ref: 204 (19.7%) New

Lab: 147 (14.2%) -18.4%

Res: 55 (5.3%) New

Grn: 34 (3.3%) New

LDm: 22 (2.1%) -5.2%

Con HOLD

Triggered by the death of the 70-year-old incumbent, following a cancer battle.  He had served an unbroken period of 27 years on the council, having initially been elected in the 1980s and regaining his seat in 1999.  It was a three-horse race for this seat in 2023 and the incumbent improved his lead over Labour at a time in which the Tories were not particularly popular at large in the country.  On Thursday, the Tory candidate managed to fend off Reform with relative ease, as Labour slipped to third with a significant swing to Reform.

Karl - Con HOLD ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Amble, Northumberland County Council

Lab: 439 (38.8%) +0.4%

Ref: 379 (33.5%) -10.9%

Con: 237 (21.0%) +3.8%

Res: 76 (6.7%) New

Lab GAIN from Ref

Triggered by the sudden death of the 71-year-old incumbent, who had been elected to this semi-rural ward last year.  Northumberland is very much a battleground between Reform and the Conservatives, with Reform emerging from last year's election just three seats behind the Tories.  These stunning gains for Reform tipped the council into no overall control, but they have since slipped further behind the Tories as a result of expulsions, resignations, a by-election defeat and now death.  As predicted, Labour snuck to victory by the slender margin of 60 votes, helped by the presence of Rupert Lowe's project.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✔

Rich - Lab GAIN ✔

Hirst, Northumberland County Council

Lab: 350 (50.1%) +7.0%

Ref: 210 (30.0%) -20.0%

Res: 72 (10.3%) New

Con: 29 (4.1%) -2.8%

LDm: 27 (3.9%) New

Ind: 11 (1.6%) New

Lab GAIN from Ref

If the above Northumberland ward posed a tricky defence for Reform, this one was a mountain to climb.  The trigger for this contest was the disqualification of the incumbent, who had failed to show up at a single council meeting in six months.  He had been elected last year and like the above vacancy, it was a tight victory over Labour.  However, he soon found himself without a party as he was expelled from Reform as a result of online remarks, which included an expressed desire to 'shoot Starmer' given the opportunity.  It was a comfortable gain for Labour on Thursday, with a 140 vote margin over Reform.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✔

Rich - Lab GAIN ✔

Forth & Endrick, Stirling Council

(first preference votes)

Con: 1,188 (34.2%) -1.8%

SNP: 1,057 (30.5%) -4.8%

Lab: 380 (11.0%) -3.1%

Grn: 317 (9.1%) New

Ref: 298 (8.6%) New

LDm: 175 (5.0%) -0.7%

Ind: 55 (1.6%) New

Con HOLD (elected at stage 7)

Triggered by the death of the 76-year-old incumbent, who had been suffering from prostate cancer for the past two years.  He won the second of three seats here in 2022, with the SNP topping the poll on first preferences.  This is a vast sprawling council ward to the north of Glasgow that takes in much of the Loch Lomond and Trossachs National Park, including the banks of the famed loch itself.  The Scottish Family Party, who finished last in 2022, did not stand on Thursday.  It took seven stages for the Conservatives to hold the seat, but pushing the SNP into second place on first preferences is the key takeaway.

Karl - SNP GAIN ✘

Rich - Con HOLD ✔

A good week for our tipsters, with Karl pulling another point back in the head to head.  Both Karl and Richey are comfortably maintaining a 50 per cent plus accuracy rate.

MEME MONDAY #102

Slim pickings again last week, but a couple of memes broke the 1,000 share mark, so it wasn't a bad return.  We are already picking up going forward with as many new memes posted today than the whole of last week.  Karl is getting back in the game as his regular visits to the GP begin to lessen.

Tue 22 Sep - 92 shares

Thu 24 Sep - 1,261 shares

Fri 25 Sep -1,091 shares

Sun 27 Sep - 95 shares

Three Facebook Stories were published last week, all part of our Diversity Is Strength series...

BOATWATCH #78

It was a momentous week in the Channel and certainly not a week during which Labour MPs wanted to talk about 'crossings being down'.  A five day lull came to an end on Monday with three boats, one of which landed in Folkestone and was the first to reach British shores undetected (that we know about) since September last year.  Outrageously, this was followed only a day later by another undetected boat that landed in Dover.  What are the chances that two such boats would arrive undetected for the first time in more than a year 24 hours apart and none since?  Pretty slim just doesn't cut it.

Those two boats (and the four met by collaborator vessels) were followed a day later by a colossal ten boats carrying 781 migrants - a new daily record for 2026 and the highest daily figure since December 2025.  It was during this uptick in arrivals that an anti-colonist activist made his own interception in the Channel, albeit after the migrants had been unloaded onto the collaborator vessel.  Daniel Thomas livestreamed himself attempting to disable the dinghy as a French lifeguard tried to retrieve the boat, presumably in order for it to be redeployed later.  Predictably, Thomas was later arrested and charged with 'criminal damage' by the British authorities.

The aiding and abetting of the small boats invasion by both the British and French authorities is plain for all who care to see it.

The data set below does not account for the migrants who fled the scene after the two unintercepted small boats made landfall on Monday and Tuesday.  Only five colonists were detained on Monday and 21 on Tuesday.  A video shared online shows at least 20 young men clambering up the beach near Folkestone, most of whom are now at large

Total = 1,129 (increase of 935 from previous week)

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 24.09.26

There were six council seat vacancies filled this week and for the second week in a row we had an unorthodox polling day for one of them.  Tunbridge Wells Borough Council held its by-election on Wednesday.  All in all, we had two defences apiece for Labour and the Tories, one for the Greens and a free-for-all in Tunbridge Wells.

Kemi Badenoch will probably be the happiest party leader on the back of these results.  Two holds and a gain from the hapless Greens - all with increased vote shares - marking the best Tory returns for some time.  The Greens will be happy to have gained a Labour seat in Brighton, but this somewhat masks an otherwise torrid round of performances.  Brighton asides, their vote share was down in every seat the party contested, including a wooden spoon and a failed defence in the Cotswolds in which they slumped to fourth with a derisory 54 votes.

The likelihood of the Greens as a potential challenger to Labour on the left appear to have faded in the rear view mirror as Burnham continues to breathe a very faint spark of life into the party his predecessor nearly killed off.  He's not doing so great judging by this set of results, with two wooden spoons and defeat to the Greens in Brighton.  Labour managed an impressive hold in Milton Keynes, but like their defeat in Brighton, this was a result with local issues at heart.

Queen's Park, Brighton and Hove City Council

Grn: 1,139 (50.1%) +26.2%

Lab: 802 (35.3%) -15.7%

Ref: 160 (7.0%) New

Con: 97 (4.3%) -3.2%

LDm: 74 (3.3%) -1.3%

Grn GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the Labour incumbent, who was elected in a 2024 by-election.  She stood down as the result of a dispute in which she sought assurances that the Labour controlled council would comply with a recent ruling that clarified the Supreme Court's confirmation of biological sex-based rights.  She failed to obtain those assurances and resigned her seat, although it is not clear if she left the party also.  Yes, this is Brighton and Hove, a notoriously woke city in which the Alphabet People have a strong presence.  Control of the council has changed hands between Labour and the Greens several times since 2011.  The Greens won a by-election in this ward last year and did so again on Thursday, bucking their national downward trend.  They remain some considerable distance behind Labour in terms of seats on the council.  There was no independent candidate this time.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD ✘

Blockley, Cotswold District Council

Con: 431 (54.7%) +11.0%

LDm: 230 (29.2%) New

Ref: 59 (7.5%) New

Grn: 54 (6.9%) -49.5%

Lab: 14 (1.8%) New

Con GAIN from Grn

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, who cited additional work commitments outside of her council duties as the reason for stepping down.  She had served this rural ward since the most recent elections here in 2023, winning the seat in a head to head contest against the Conservatives, emerging victorious 518-402.  The ballot paper was greatly expanded on Thursday, but the Greens could not blame their disastrous performance on the addition of three candidates.  All the votes for the newcomers combined came nowhere near the 518 votes secured by the Greens in 2023, while the victorious Tories increased their vote share.  Bad news for Zack's crazy gang.

Karl - Con GAIN ✔

Rich - LDm GAIN ✘

New Bradwell, Milton Keynes City Council

Lab: 1,023 (54.2%) +19.7%

Ref: 441 (23.4%) -3.1%

Grn: 175 (9.3%) -12.5%

Con: 160 (8.5%) -2.6%

LDm: 87 (4.6%) -1.5%

Lab HOLD

Triggered by the untimely death of the 28-year-old incumbent, who had been diagnosed with a rare and aggressive brain tumour.  She won the second of two seats here in May, with Reform close behind.  The latter were looking to gain their tenth councillor in Milton Keynes, but it wasn't to be as Labour delivered an impressive defence.  This was the first time Labour had increased their vote share by more than 19 points in a council by-election since August 2025.  Was it largely down to a sympathy vote?  They played heavily on the tragic death of their councillor in campaign leaflets, while there was also a swing from the rapidly declining Greens.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Womborne North, South Staffordshire District Council

Con: 864 (50.1%) +8.1%

Ref: 645 (37.4%) New

Lab: 115 (6.7%) -12.3%

Grn: 68 (3.9%) -16.1%

LDm: 33 (1.9%) -7.3%

Con HOLD

Triggered by the death of the incumbent, who was thought to be in his late 70s or early 80s.  His health had reportedly been in decline.  There have not been any council wide elections to this authority since 2023, which has been under Conservative control since 1976.  The Tories have now won all three of the by-elections fought here since 2023, with Reform still unable to get a foot in the council house.  As we saw last week, there appeared to be an unusual swing from left-wing parties, predominantly to Reform, but also to the victorious Conservatives.  There was no Heritage Party candidate this time, but they only picked up 208 votes in 2023.

Karl - Con HOLD ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Bray, Windsor and Maidenhead Borough Council

Con: 745 (36.1%) +1.3%

LDm: 719 (34.9%) +20.1%

Ref: 368 (17.8%) New

Ind: 193 (9.4%) -32.9%

Lab: 38 (1.8%) -6.3%

Con HOLD

Triggered by the death of the 94-year-old incumbent (yes, you read that correctly, 94).  He had served no less than 52 unbroken years on the council, although he was clinging on by the time of the last election here.  In 2023, he managed to secure the second of the ward's two seats by the narrow margin of 20 votes.  Local group Borough First took first place on that occasion and they stood again on Thursday, but sank to a distant fourth.  They are marked as Independents, as per our policy towards all local groups.  The Conservatives managed to hold off a huge Lib Dem surge by just 26 votes.

Karl - Ind GAIN ✘

Rich - LDm GAIN ✘

Cranbrook, Sissinghurst & Frittenden, Tunbridge Wells Borough Council

LDm: 697 (37.4%) +22.9%

Con: 590 (31.6) -14.6%

Ref: 392 (21.0%) -4.4%

Grn: 186 (10.0%) -4.0%

LDm GAIN from Ind

Wednesday's by-election was triggered by the resignation of the incumbent, who had represented this largely rural ward - in both its current boundaries and previous boundaries - since 2019.  A member of local independent group the Tunbridge Wells Alliance, her colleagues did not contest this by-election, so we had a free-for-all that turned into a stunning Lib Dem gain.  The Lib Dems finished third here in May, with less than a third of the votes garnered by the first place Tories.

Karl - Con GAIN ✘

Rich - Con GAIN ✘

A complete strike out for Richey this week as Karl claws back three points.

MEME MONDAY #101

Another very quiet week indeed, apologies once again for the ongoing disruption to our work.  There is a very real chance this lull will continue into the winter.

Mon 14 Sep - 763 shares

Wed 16 Sep - 42 shares.  There wasn't much sympathy in the comments,
with many of the opinion that these NIMBYs have simply got what's
coming to them

Thu 17 Sep - 38 shares

Fri 18 Sep - 46 shares

Just the three Facebook Stories last week...