COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 02.07.26

Peterhead South & Cruden, Aberdeenshire Council

(Con defence)

Triggered by the death of the 65-year-old incumbent.  Elected as a Conservative in 2022, he left the party a year later and had been serving as an independent ever since.  The SNP topped the poll here in 2022 on first preferences, with the Conservatives elected in second place and taking up one of the three vacant seats.  Labour and the Greens did not contest that time and are absent again, which will surely help the SNP.  Newcomers to the ballot are Reform, the Scottish Family Party and two independents, one of which is ex-Tory MP Ross Thomson, who was briefly the member for Aberdeen South from 2017-19.

Karl - Con HOLD

Rich - SNP GAIN

Horwich North, Bolton Metropolitan Borough Council

(Ind defence)

This is a local independent defence by the Horwich and Blackrod First Independents.  The incumbent was elected under that banner, but later left to serve as an independent independent.  He resigned from the council in May.  The ballot paper here remains largely the same as it was in May's local elections, with the same five parties standing, along with an independent and the Horwich group.  However, only Labour and the Lib Dems have stuck with the same candidates.

Karl - Ind HOLD

Rich - Ind HOLD

Weaver & Cuddington, Cheshire West and Chester Council

(Con defence)

Triggered by the resignation of the incumbent due to 'a change in professional and personal circumstances'.  He was elected in 2023, having finished third, taking the third and final available seat.  Reform are the only newcomers in a ward that has returned independent candidates in first place since 2019.

Karl - Ind GAIN

Rich - Ind GAIN

St Michael's, Cotswold District Council

(LDm defence)

A change of career led to the resignation of the incumbent, who has a very impressive local government record dating back 15 years to when he was first elected at just 18 years of age.  He was the UK's youngest mayor and was also the council leader for six years.  The same councillor also stood down as a Gloucestershire county councillor, with that by-election also being held today (see Cirencester Park below).  In the most recent election here he was elected with more than twice the votes of the only other candidate - a Tory.  That was 2023, but there will five on the ballot this time, with Reform, the Greens and Labour joining the fray.

Karl - LDm HOLD

Rich - LDm HOLD

St Leonards & St Ives, Dorset Council

(Con defence)

Triggered by the death of the incumbent, who was in his 80s.  He was elected in 2023 as one of two councillors in this ward, as the Conservatives defeated the only other candidates - two Lib Dems.  Reform and the Greens will also be on the ballot this time around.  The Tories have selected the deceased's elderly widow as their candidate.

Karl - Con HOLD

Rich - LDm GAIN

Cirencester Park, Gloucestershire County Council

(LDm defence)

The incumbent was also a Cotswold district councillor (see St Michael's above) and resigned from both seats simultaneously.  He won this seat for the Lib Dems comfortably in 2025.  The ballot paper on Thursday retains the same five parties that stood previously.

Karl - LDm HOLD

Rich - LDm HOLD

Lutterworth East, Harborough District Council

(Lab defence)

Triggered by the death of the incumbent, aged 79.  The Labour man's death had a huge impact on the council, as it meant that the Lib Dem-led rainbow coalition was no longer the largest group on the council and the Conservatives wasted no time in raising a motion to dislodge the council leader.  The Lib Dems had been leading a coalition of Labour, Green and one independent councillor as a minority administration.  The Conservatives now hope to impose a minority administration of their own, but the outcome of this by-election will be crucial as it could swing the balance back in favour of the rainbow coalition.  The same five parties that contested this seat in 2023 will do so again on Thursday.

Karl - Ref GAIN

Rich - LDm GAIN

Glantwymyn, Powys County Council

(Pld defence)

The first of three Powys by-elections triggered by the incumbents having been elected to the Senedd on May 7.  The Plaid incumbent was elected to this rural ward unopposed in 2022, but the party will have to go up against three opponents this time round - Reform, the Tories and Lib Dems.  

Karl - Pld HOLD

Rich - Pld HOLD

Llanyre with Nantmel, Powys County Council

(free-for-all, was Ind)

The incumbent vacates the seat, having been elected to the Senedd for Reform UK - but how long she maintains that banner remains to be seen.  She was first elected to this ward in 2017 as a Conservative, before defecting to the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party in 2020 and standing for that party in the 2021 Senedd election.  By the time she defended her council seat in 2022, she had departed Abolish and was elected as an independent.  Her most recent realignment occurred last year when she joined Reform, for whom she now sits in the Senedd.  Her only opponents in the 2022 Powys election were the Lib Dems, but they will be joined this time by the Greens, Reform, Tories and an independent.

Karl - Ref GAIN

Rich - LDm GAIN

Yscir with Honddu Isaf & Llanddew, Powys County Council

(Con defence)

Another vacancy arising from the incumbent being elected to the Senedd for Reform UK.  Elected as a Conservative councillor in 2022, he defected to Reform in 2025.  He won his council seat in a head-to-head with the Lib Dems, but the ballot paper will be much more crowded on Thursday.  The Tories and Lib Dems will be joined by Reform, Plaid, the Greens and Labour.

Karl - Ref GAIN

Rich - LDm GAIN

Malinslee & Dawley Bank, Telford and Wrekin Council

(Lab defence)

Multiple by-elections have been triggered in Scotland and Wales recently, due to the election of the incumbents to Holyrood and the Senedd.  However, for MPs there is no such requirement to stand down from council roles.  Telford elected a new MP in the 2024 general election - Shaun Davies - who had been a local councillor since 2011.  He stood down as council leader in order to focus on his Westminster run, but has remained a councillor ever since.  Davies, whose wife also serves as a councillor for the same ward, has finally stood down after being appointed a government whip.  He may have continued still, but says he was advised not to when he took on his new role in the Commons.  Reform and the Greens will be new entries among those trying to prevent a Labour hold.

Karl - Ref GAIN

Rich - Lab HOLD

Llantarnam, Torfaen County Borough Council

(free-for-all, was Ind)

This week's fourth and final vacancy triggered by the election of the incumbent to the Senedd, again for Reform UK.  And again, the new MS was not elected as a Reform councillor.  He was elected as an independent in 2017, joined the Conservatives a year later and quit the party the following year.  He was elected as an independent again in a 2023 by-election, before joining Reform the following year.  Reform will be the only newcomers this time, while there are no independents standing.  Labour have selected a candidate who is barred from social work due to sexual misconduct.

Karl - Grn GAIN

Rich - Ref GAIN

Karl leads Richey by three points going into week seven, having correctly predicted 29 results from 54 seats.

TOON TUESDAY #109

It's all about Andy this week (as he likes it).  There has been a bit of a football theme recently, but this week tennis takes centre stage (or court) with Wimbledon under way.  There's also a welcome return for Peter Brookes' famous depiction of Ed Miliband as Wallace.  Miliband has been mooted as a potential Chancellor of the Exchequer under Burnham.  Gawd help us!

It's fair to say that some cartoonists have yet to get to grips with depicting Burnham.  The usually excellent Ben Jennings has drawn a particularly woeful interpretation, while Brighty's rendering has a whiff of Gordon Brown about it...

Steve Bright for The Sun

Ben Jennings for The Guardian

Graeme Bandeira for The Northern Agenda

Morten Morland for The Times

Ben Jennings for The Guardian

Morten Morland for The Times

Ella Baron for The Guardian

Nick Newman for The Sunday Times

Morten Morland for The Times

Peter Brookes for The Times

Morten Morland for The Sunday Times

Christian Adams for The Daily Telegraph

Christian Adams for The Sunday Telegrpah

Morten Morland for The Times

Nick Newman for The Sunday Times

Patrick Blower for The Daily Telegraph

Denzo on X

BURNHAM'S DEVOLUTION DEATHWISH

If Andy Burnham is to turn Labour's fortunes around, he will have to do things differently.  Starmer's slogan was 'Change' and Burnham will be looking to make changes of his own - primarily changing direction from what he inherits.

In his first big speech on Monday, he drew upon his northern credentials and announced big plans to 'level up'.  Yes, we've heard that before, but Burnham is plotting a radical agenda that includes opening an additional - possibly primary - residence in Manchester.  He has coined this 'Number Ten North', but it is not clear if this will be his main residence or whether he will spend a similar number of working days in Downing Street.

Burnham knows he will have to rebuild the Red Wall if Labour are to stand any chance of winning another general election and wants to be seen as the 'King in the North' who went south and devolved power away from London.

There is a major problem with his plan to devolve power to 'regions' of England.  We have been here before, it is nothing new and it was overwhelmingly rejected the first time around.

Tony Blair immediately set upon a path of dividing the United Kingdom into 'regions' upon his election victory in 1997.  That very same year he narrowly succeeded in devolving powers to Scotland and Wales, by way of two referendums, the latter of which garnered a paper thin majority of less than 8,000 votes and 0.6 per cent.  It was a double win nonetheless, followed a year later by two more successful referendums - one in Northern Ireland that delivered devolution through the Good Friday Agreement and another in London that created the Greater London Authority.  The next stage in the process was always going to be a much harder sell - devolution to a further eight 'regions' of England.

Why was all this important to him?  Because as a globalist Europhile, he was determined to split the UK into regions along the exact same boundaries drawn up by the European Union.  These were the twelve regions that were drawn up in preparation for the 1999 European elections and thereafter - Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, South West England, South East England, London, East of England, East Midlands, West Midlands, Yorkshire (and the Humber), North East England and North West England.

Prior to this election, there were only two entities that returned British MEPs to Brussels - Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Selling devolution to Scotland and Wales - two distinct national entities on the island of Great Britain - was always going to be an easier sell for Blair (although barely one in four Welsh voters actually voted for devolution).  However, the other main constituent nation of Great Britain would have to be divided up into nine regions.  There was no national pride to which Blair could appeal, seeing as he would essentially be breaking England up into pieces.

Initially, Blair earmarked three northern regions to test the waters - the north east, north west and Yorkshire.  The latter two were dropped, but the north east devolution referendum went ahead, particularly as it was deemed to have the strongest support.  The result was disastrous for Blair and effectively halted his plan.  On a 48 per cent turnout, the north east rejected the proposed regional assembly by a huge margin of 78 per cent against 22 per cent in favour.

The message delivered was loud and clear - the people of England did not want to be broken into pieces with yet another layer of bureaucracy, while centuries old shire counties were consigned to the history bin.

Has this sentiment changed in 22 years?  Highly doubtful, as devolution to the other home nations has only increased a sense of English national identity.

The revival of this devolution plan will be problematic for Burnham, regardless of how he wants to achieve it.  He has not mentioned holding any referendums, but during the same speech declared ominously: "The political direction I set will not be up for negotiation".  If he means to impose devolution without a public vote, that is not going to endear himself to the electorate he desperately needs to get on board.

MEME MONDAY #89

It was momentous week as the inevitable finally caught up with Keir Starmer.  Yes, the week kicked off with the biggest resignation in British politics since the end of Liz Truss's fifty days in the big job.  Both were cut down by their own MPs, with a replacement readily lined up to be crowned PM without so much as a leadership contest.  Burnham's own coronation may not be confirmed just yet, but the likelihood of a challenge is diminishing.

Karl has taken his foot off the gas since returning from a short break and there were no Facebook Stories published last week.  That is set to change this week, but memes may still be few and far between for a wee while.  We do have day jobs and families, and if it weren't for the regular donations of Colleen Evans there is every chance we would have wound this campaign up by now.  Thanks Colleen, you are our rock.

Mon 22 Jun - 98 shares

Mon 22 Jun - 65 shares

Mon 22 Jun - 124 shares

Tue 23 Jun - 12 shares

Tue 23 Jun - 80 shares.  This post generated lots of debate,
with 1.1 million views and over three thousand comments.
The results (as it stands at the time of writing) are:
Leave, no regrets = 16,463
Remain, no regrets = 6,535
Leave, now Remain = 740
Remain, now Leave = 394

Wed 24 Jun - 204 shares.  Most MPs, but Burnham's decapitation of
the dire Starmer will save a few (as will Rupert Lowe)

Thu 25 Jun - 606 shares

Thu 25 Jun - 831 shares

Fri 26 Jun - 7 shares

Sat 27 Jun - 231 shares.  Rumours abound Burnham will call an autumn
election, which could have disastrous consequences and lead to a rainbow
coalition of leftist Hell

Sun 28 Jun - 23 shares.  If you're not on X, supporting Elon and the
proliferation of free speech - you are part of the problem

Sun 28 Jun - 14 shares.  One shy of a thousand, if only there was such a
number to call in this ongoing emergency!

Want us to do more?  You can help by purchasing a couple of metaphorical pints here or by donating via PayPal.  This helps fund our campaign and serves as a vital morale booster.  We can't do this without your support.

Thank you.

BOATWATCH #65

That huge lull during the first part of June is well and truly over.  Although crossings came down last week, colonists were picked up and brought ashore every day except Friday.  Boat capacity ranged from just 27 on Monday, to a whopping 105 on Saturday.

The sharp uptick in the last two weeks has put 2026 more in line with 2022, which went on become the all time annual record - and remains so, even after two years of Labour.  However, 2022 had colossal numbers arriving in August and numbers remained high going all the way through the autumn months, before tailing off in December.  Let's hope we don't get any more wars kicking off in certain regions this year, eh President Trump?

Total = 999 (down 603 from previous week)

AIRPORT CLIMATE SCAMMING

During last month's heatwave, Richey discussed the rampant climate scamming that now customarily accompanies any kind of inclement weather.  Part of the climate scammers' agenda in hot weather is to show that record temperatures have been recorded somewhere.  Quite often they record these 'record temperatures' at Heathrow, or some obscure place that shares something in common with Heathrow - an airport.  The scammers don't provide an exact location and never mention the airport.

For example, last week the BBC reported daily 'record temperatures'.  The first of which was simply reported as 'Gosport' in Hampshire, while the second one was 'Merryfield' in Somerset.  No mention was given to the general aviation airport in Gosport or the RAF airbase at Merryfield.

What do airports and airbases provide in hot weather?  Extraordinarily hot temperatures, as miles of unsheltered tarmac, concrete and asphalt soak up the rays of the sun to create an island of tropical heat.

Richey discussed the airport scamming briefly last week, albeit he incorrectly refers to the heat effect as a 'vacuum', which is not scientifically correct.  Watch below (three minute watch).

Climate scamming is not restricted to the UK, naturally.  The climate agenda is pushed by the same globalists that have taken control of nearly every Western nation.  So when a record temperature was recorded in Germany last week - at the city of Saarbrücken - imagine our lack of surprise to find that said city also has an airport.

Question everything.

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 25.06.26

It was another exceptionally busy week, with no less than 24 council seats up for grabs across the mainland.  Several contests were held to replace councillors elected to the Welsh Senedd, two polls (for three seats) were carried over from May 7, while the remainder were a melting pot of deaths, resignations and disqualifications.

The hot weather appeared to affect turnout, which was significantly down in some southern and Midland contests.  Turnout was lower than 14 per cent in the Hackney ward of Dalston.

This round of by-elections was certainly Labour's best in a long time, with multiple gains and holds for the first time in 18 months.  However, they still lost more seats than they gained, with a net loss of three.  Their vote share increased in ten of the seats the party contested, which bucks a trend dating back well over a year.  However, their vote share was still plummeting in several seats.

There is clearly evidence of a slight turnaround in fortunes for Labour, but is it really a Burnham bounce?  Time will tell.  He is not in place yet.  This was probably more about a realisation that Starmer is leaving, as opposed to who is coming in.

George St/Harbour, Aberdeen City Council

(first preference votes)

SNP: 583 (33.1%) -9.1%

Lab: 255 (14.5%) -5.3%

Grn: 232 (13.2%) -0.7%

Ref: 177 (10.1%) New

LDm: 162 (9.2%) -2.2%

Ind: 162 (9.2%) New

Con: 146 (8.3%) -2.7%

TUS: 31 (1.8%) New

ALS: 13 (0.7%) New

SNP GAIN from LDm (elected at stage 8)

This by-election was triggered after the incumbent moved away from the area, much to the reported annoyance of the SNP/Lib Dem coalition that runs the council with a majority of just one.  They needn't have worried too much, as the SNP easily took the seat.  Due to the complex nature of Scottish elections, it was highly improbable that the Lib Dems could hold this seat as they finished fifth here last time, but were elected on the single transferable vote mechanism.

Karl - SNP GAIN ✔

Rich - SNP GAIN ✔

Goldsmid, Brighton and Hove City Council

Grn: 2,037 (49.0%) +22.4%

Lab: 1,357 (32.7%) -14.6%

Ref: 304 (7.3%) New

LDm: 214 (5.2%) -1.7%

Con: 210 (5.1%) -4.6%

TUS: 31 (0.7%) New

Grn GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the Labour incumbent, who had been sitting as an independent since February.  She had resigned from Labour, citing disenchantment with the national party.  It appears that Brighton voters felt the same, with a significant swing to the victorious Greens.  There was no independent candidate this time.

Karl - Grn GAIN ✔

Rich - Lab HOLD ✘

Roman Bank & Peckover, Cambridgeshire County Council

Ref: 1,009 (39.0%) -5.6%

Con: 983 (38.0%) +8.7%

LDm: 414 (16.0%) -3.1%

Lab: 105 (4.1%) +0.2%

Grn: 76 (2.9%) -0.2%

Ref HOLD

A tight contest this and some existing beef between the two parties at the top of the poll.  The Reform incumbent was recently convicted of defaming a Conservative candidate in a Facebook post and was disqualified from his council seat as a result.  Reform managed to hold off the Tories by a margin of 26 votes.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Con GAIN ✘

Llangennech, Carmarthenshire County Council

Pld: 483 (41.1%) +11.0%

Lab: 338 (28.9%) +5.3%

Ref: 283 (24.2%) -18.9%

Con: 38 (3.3%) +2.4%

Ind: 11 (0.9%) New

Grn: 8 (0.7%) New

LDm: 7 (0.6%) -1.0%

Pld GAIN from Ref

Held due to the election of the Reform incumbent to the Senedd last month.  He vacated the seat, having only won it from Labour in a by-election last August.  Reform suffered a significant dip in vote share this time, slipping to third place, while all those around them increased their share.  Welsh voters will learn soon enough that Plaid is not the answer.  Gwlad did not contest the seat this time round.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✘

Rich - Pld GAIN ✔

Rhyl South, Denbighshire County Council

Ref: 297 (44.3%) New

Pld: 167 (23.9%) New

Lab: 160 (19.6%) -43.0%

Con: 131 (10.0%) -27.4%

LDm: 10 (1.5%) New

Grn: 5 (0.7%) New

Ref GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the death of the longstanding incumbent, but there was zero sympathy from voters as Labour tumbled to third place with a big swing to Plaid and Reform.  The deceased had been erroneously listed as an 'independent' in some quarters, not helped by a statement from the council referring to her as a 'non-aligned member'.  However, Cllr Chamberlain-Jones had been elected on a Labour ticket at every Denbighshire council election since 2004.

Karl - Lab HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Llanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch, Denbighshire County Council

Ind: 283 (46.2%) New

Pld: 242 (39.5%) -29.9%

Ref: 47 (7.7%) New

Ind: 24 (3.9%) New

Con: 17 (2.8%) -27.8%

Ind GAIN from Pld

The election of the Plaid incumbent to the Senedd last month triggered this contest.  Only Plaid and the Conservatives stood here last time and voters clearly wanted something different, opting for an independent newcomer over the national socialists of Plaid.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✘

Rich - Pld HOLD ✘

North Acton, Ealing London Borough Council

Grn: 804 (30.2%) +1.4%

Lab: 642 (24.1%) -4.6%

LDm: 523 (19.6%) +8.3%

Ref: 309 (11.6%) -0.1%

Con: 257 (9.6%) -3.5%

Ind: 129 (4.8%) New

Grn HOLD

A relatively easy hold for the Greens, despite voters being asked to vote again - in searing heat - just seven weeks after electing them in the first place.  The initial winning Green resigned days after being elected on May 7, citing unspecified 'health grounds'.  If he had been a newly elected Reform councillor, there would have been a lot more media interest in his resignation.  There were two absentees from last month's election here - Rejoin EU and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition dropped out just weeks after garnering 201 and 83 votes respectively.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab GAIN ✘

Dalston, Hackney London Borough Council

Grn: 549 (57.7%) -2.6%

Lab: 342 (36.0%) +6.9%

Ref: 26 (2.7%) -0.1%

LDm: 24 (2.5%) -2.0%

Con: 10 (1.1%) -2.3%

Grn HOLD

Another London by-election triggered by the Greens, costing taxpayers upwards of £20,000, after they selected the same candidate for both council and elected mayor.  Having been elected as Hackney's new mayor, the Green victor had to forfeit the council seat.  The same five parties that contested the seat a few weeks ago did so again and the Greens managed to hold on a very poor turnout.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Grn HOLD ✔

Hackney Central, Hackney London Borough Council

Grn: 676 (45.3%) -1.6%

Lab: 624 (41.9%) +12.4%

LDm: 83 (5.6%) -1.6%

Ref: 59 (4.0%) -0.7%

Con: 49 (3.3%) -1.3%

Grn HOLD

Another Green cock-up in Hackney sparked this by-election, this time having fielded an ineligible candidate.  No-one in Zack's crazy gang seemed to clock that a council employee (a school teacher in this instance) could not take up a council seat.  An independent and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition stood here last month, but dropped out for this re-run.  As an indicator of what kind of ward this is, three of the five candidates (Green, Labour, Lib Dems) had double-barrelled names.  There was a Labour bounce in terms of vote share, but bourgeois voters just about kept the seat for the Greens.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✘

Rich - Lab GAIN ✘

Farnworth, Halton Borough Council

Lab: 835 (51.0%) +14.6

Ref: 596 (36.4%) n/c

Con: 126 (7.7%) -5.7%

Grn: 77 (4.7%) -9.0%

Lbt: 3 (0.2%) New

Lab HOLD

Labour not only held this seat, they extended their lead over Reform, which in last month's council elections here was just one vote.  A Burnham bounce?  The resignation of the Labour incumbent for 'personal reasons' triggered this contest.  The Libertarian newcomer didn't fare too well.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Northumberland Park, Haringey London Borough Council

Lab: 877 (44.3%) +12.4%

Grn: 839 (42.4%) +13.1%

Ref: 106 (5.4%) -0.6%

Con: 98 (4.9%) -2.0%

LDm: 60 (3.0%) -1.7%

Lab GAIN from Green

Another contest caused by an ineligible Green elected only last month.  The reason for the disqualification is not clear, which may suggest a criminal conviction.  Again, if this had been a Reform councillor, the media would be asking all sorts of questions.  The Greens needed to hold here and gain a seat from Labour in the other vacancy to take outright control of the council.  It wasn't to be, as Labour held onto the lead they received in last month's election, when all three seats were up for grabs.  Two Labour candidates topped the poll on May 7, but the solitary unvetted Green candidate squeezed into third place to take the third seat.  A local independent socialist that dropped out was the only ballot change from May 7.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✔

Rich - Lab GAIN ✔

Woodside, Haringey London Borough Council

Grn: 1,033 (43.3%) +6.1%

Lab: 976 (41.0%) +2.7%

Ref: 171 (7.2%) +0.1%

Con: 110 (4.6%) -2.4%

LDm: 93 (3.9%) -6.5%

Grn GAIN from Lab

Yet another ward being asked to vote again just a few week after May 7, this time because the Labour incumbent resigned for 'personal reasons', just days after being elected.  The Greens scored a gain in this left-wing contest, but it wasn't enough to gain an outright majority on Haringey Council.  They were two seats short and running a minority administration going into Thursday, but they lost a seat to Labour on the same night.  Oh well!

Karl - Lab HOLD ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD ✘

Bushey Park, Hertsmere Borough Council

Con: 947 (42.9%) +3.4%

LDm: 726 (32.9%) -19.5%

Ref: 422 (19.1%) New

Grn: 61 (2.8%) New

Lab: 50 (2.3%) -5.8%

Con GAIN from LDm

A surprise Tory gain, following the death of the Lib Dem incumbent.  The Lib Dem vote share took a big tumble and Labour hit rock bottom.  Were there local issues at play, or was it a statement about the overall populatity of the Labour/Lib Dem coalition that has run the council since 2023?

Karl - LDm HOLD ✘

Rich - LDm HOLD ✘

East Sutherland & Edderton, Highland Council

(first preference votes)

Ind: 1,044 (40.2%) New

LDm: 854 (32.9%) -2.9%

SNP: 452 (17.4%) -9.1%

Ref: 188 (7.2%) New

Con: 59 (2.3%) -14.7%

Ind GAIN from Ind (elected at stage 5)

The independent incumbent resigned on health grounds, having picked up this seat in 2022 through Scotland's complex voting system.  The Lib Dems topped the poll on that occasion, but there were three seats up for grabs and one went to the independent candidate.  Labour were previously the top dogs in this ward, but they did not even turn up to defend the seat in 2022 and were absent again this time, as were the Libertarians who contested the seat last time

Karl - SNP GAIN ✘

Rich - LDm GAIN ✘

Dowlais & Pant, Merthyr Tydfil County Borough Council

Lab: 356 (40.1%) +12.5%

Ind: 215 (24.2%) New

Ref: 160 (18.0%) New

Pld: 125 (14.1%) +5.7%

Grn: 20 (2.3%) New

Con: 11 (1.2%) New

Lab GAIN from Ind

Another vacancy arising out of the election of the incumbent to the Senedd last month.  He was elected as an independent to this ward in 2022, but joined Reform UK three years later and now represents that party in the Senedd.  Independents have been very successfull in this ward previously, but it was Labour who won this free-for-all election, while the party the incumbent had switched to finished a distant third.

Karl - Lab GAIN ✔

Rich - Ind GAIN ✘

Camp Hill, Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough Council

Ref: 460 (48.7%) +2.6%

Lab: 400 (42.4%) +19.3%

Con: 84 (8.9%) -2.6%

Ref GAIN from Lab

Triggered by the resignation of the Labour incumbent on health grounds.  Last month there were five candidates here, but this time there were no candidates from either the Greens or Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, which clearly benefited Labour.  However, it was not enough to stop Reform, who gained the other council seat from Labour here last month.  The vote share changes are compared with that recent election, which is why Labour's vote share has outpaced Reform's, but they still lose the seat they won in 2024.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Treorchy, Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council

Pld: 1,147 (70.8%) +31.4% Ref: 260 (16.0%) New Lab: 164 (10.1%) -45.1% Con: 27 (1.7%) -3.8% Grn: 23 (1.4%) New

Pld HOLD

The Plaid incumbent was elected to the Senedd last month and vacated this seat as a result.  Both council seats were up for grabs here last time and Plaid narrowly won the second seat behind first place Labour.  There was no such close call this time, with Labour crashing to third place and Plaid romping home in first place by a margin of almost 900 votes.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Haydock, St. Helens Borough Council

Ref: 717 (33.0%) -7.4%

Ind: 631 (29.0%) New

Lab: 598 (27.5%) +9.1%

Grn: 154 (7.1%) -21.4%

Con: 39 (1.8%) -3.7%

Ind: 36 (1.7%) -5.5%

Ref HOLD

Reform managed to hold, despite the vacancy arising from a hugely embarrassing scenario - especially for a party on the conservative right.  The incumbent resigned days after being elected last month, after the local lefty rag exposed him as a gay porn star.  The local Reform leadership stood by him - publicly at least - but he chose to resign anyway.  Reform's left-wing opponents clearly struggled to make use of such a smear, considering they would otherwise support such debauchery.  Let's hope the latest Reform victor has a more virtuous history!

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Grn GAIN ✘

St Helens Town Centre, St Helens Borough Council

(two seats)

Ref: 460 (22.2%)

Lab: 436 (21.0%)

Ref: 419 (20.2%)

Lab: 391 (18.8%)

Grn: 146 (7.0%)

Grn: 112 (5.4%)

Ind: 71 (3.4%)

Con: 41 (2.0%)

Ref GAIN from Lab x 1

Lab HOLD x 1

This election for two seats was postponed and carried over from May 7, after one of the Reform candidates passed away.  The ballot paper was radically different from the last election here, which featured only four candidates for two seats (Labour x 2, Conservatives x 1, For Britain x 1).  Reform managed to top the poll and very nearly made it a double gain from Labour, but one of the Labour candidates snook into second place by a margin of 17 votes.

Karl - Lab HOLD x 2 ✔ ✘

Rich - Lab HOLD x 1 ✔ Grn GAIN x 1 ✘

Stretton, Staffordshire County Council

Ref: 902 (37.1%) -2.1%

Con: 871 (35.8%) +5.6%

Lab: 448 (18.4%) -1.1%

Grn: 213 (8.8%) +4.2%

Ref HOLD

Triggered by the resignation of the Reform incumbent, after barely a year in office.  This was attributed to health reasons, although social media comments suggested he was not too happy in the role and he had failed to attend a council meeting in five months.  Voters largely stuck with Reform, but the Tories closed the gap to just 31 votes.  The Lib Dems did not stand this time.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Con GAIN ✘

Wilnecote, Tamworth Borough Council

Ref: 618 (46.4%) +33.2% Ind: 290 (21.8%) New Con: 162 (12.2%) -20.0% Lab: 152 (11.4%) -43.2% Grn: 109 (8.2%) New

Ref GAIN from Con

This by-election was postponed and carried over from May 7, after the death of the Labour candidate.  An impressive gain for Reform, who surged past the Conservatives with a significant swing from both Labour and the Tories.  The West Midlands region is turning into quite the Reform stronghold.

Karl - Con HOLD ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Dawlish South West, Teignbridge District Council

LDm: 692 (45.3%) +6.6%

Ref: 451 (29.5%) New

Grn: 230 (15.1%) +3.8%

Con: 154 (10.1%) -12.8%

LDm HOLD

Triggered by the death of the 89-year-old incumbent (yes, you read that correctly).  The Lib Dems went for experience again, opting for a 72-year-old candidate in the form of an ex-Labour leader of Wirral Council.  The new pensioner triumphed with relative ease, while Reform entered the fray with an impressive second place on debut.  Plenty of independent votes were up for grabs this time, with three having stood here last time.  Labour don't even bother contesting this ward.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - LDm HOLD ✔

Stort Valley, Uttlesford District Council

Con: 255 (46.4%) +18.7%

LDm: 175 (31.9%) -25.8%

Ref: 119 (21.7%) +16.0%

Con GAIN from LDm

The longstanding Lib Dem incumbent is currently being treated for cancer and understandably vacated the seat on health grounds.  There was no sympathy from voters, as they dumped her party in favour of the Conservatives.  A rural ward with a tiny electorate, the Labour party contested this last time around and their absence on Thursday was the only change on the ballot.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✘

Rich - LDm HOLD ✘

Karl led Richey by a narrow margin of two going into week six.  Last week's bonanza of by-elections improved both their standings, with both moving above 50 per cent accuracy.  However, Karl has extended his lead to three this week, while Richey's accuracy drops below 50 per cent.

There are twelve more seats up for grabs next week, but only two the week after, so the pressure is very much on Richey!

TOON TUESDAY #108

To quote one of Chairman Starmer's useless policies, this week's selection of toons has a one in, one out theme.  Burnham in, Starmer out...

Nick Newman for The Sunday Times

Christian Adams for The Daily Telegraph

Matt Pritchett for The Daily Telegraph

Andy Davey for The Sunday Telegraph

Peter Brookes for The Times

Steve Bright for The Sun

Christian Adams for The Daily Telegraph

Chris Riddell for The Observer

Matt Pritchett for The Sunday Telegraph

Morten Morland for The Sunday Times

Morten Morland for The Times

Patrick Blower for The Daily Telegraph

Stephen Lillie for The Guardian

Patrick Blower for The Daily Telegraph

Peter Brookes for The Times

MEME MONDAY #88

The memes tailed off towards the end of last week as Karl was on holiday.  He'd already prepared at least one meme for each of the most likely outcomes in Makerfield, but beyond Burnham's victory they dried up and Richey turned his hand with a rare effort come Sunday.  Karl is currently shifting through a backlog of work, which is why our regular articles are appearing very late in the day.  Normal service will resume shortly.

Mon 15 Jun - 381 shares.  Bluesky was completely omitted when the government
began listing proposed sites that could be subject to the ban, leading to consternation
among those on the right.  When minister Liz Kendall was confronted about Bluesky
the following day during an LBC phone-in, she gave a conflicted response: "So in
Australia, Bluesky is included in the ban and we plan to use their model".  The
problem with this response is that Bluesky was not included in the Australia ban,
so this may not be the u-turn that Kendall was alluding to

Tue 16 Jun - 208 shares

Tue 16 Jun - 426 shares

Tue 16 Jun - 24 shares

Tue 16 Jun - 14 shares.  The result of this emoji poll was as follows:
Yes = 4
No = 139

Wed 17 Jun - 9 shares.  Five days later Wes u-turned yet again, backing out
altogether and endorsing Burnham.  Come on Wes, we wanted a damaging
drawn out leadership battle!

Wed 17 Jun - 5 shares

Wed 17 Jun - 22 shares.  The Burnham camp clearly knew that the Labour
brand is so toxic in working class communities that they went to great
lengths to omit it from the campaign.  The top left photo features the rare
sight of a Labour 'moderate' (Stella Creasy) and an SCG lefty (Rachael
Maskell) posing together

Thu 17 Jun - 110 shares.  The result of this emoji poll was as follows:
Yes = 8,112
No = 538
Wishful thinking?  We both called it for Labour in Thursday's election preview,
but very much hoped we were wrong!

Fri 19 Jun - 79 shares

Sat 20 Jun - 398 shares

Sat 20 Jun - 171 shares.  One of Richey's rare efforts

Sun 21 Jun - 82 shares

Five Facebook Stories were published last week, as follows.

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