Four council seats were contested on Thursday, with two defences apiece for Reform and Labour. It's more or less a dead heat between these two parties in the national polls and results were certainly mixed for both parties. Reform suffered a net loss of one, while Labour flatlined with a loss, a gain and a hold. Labour scored a 30.1 per cent average across the four wards, narrowly beating Reform's average of 29.6 per cent. It is clear from this week's small sample size of results that Labour under Burnham are outperforming Starmer's regime, but they are far from indicative of a party that is set to win a general election outright. Labour clung onto a seat in Nottingham with a dip in vote share of 33.8 per cent, which was largely down to voters switching to new options on the ballot paper like Reform and the Greens. Labour also avoided a wooden spoon finish in Cambridgeshire by just two votes.
Penistone East, Barnsley Metropolitan Borough Council
Lab: 1,728 (51.6%) +14.4%
Ref: 795 (23.8%) -6.7%
Con: 387 (11.6%) -7.6%
Res: 218 (6.5%) New
Ind: 87 (2.6%) New
LDm: 70 (2.1%) -3.6%
Grn: 59 (1.7%) -5.6%
Ind: 2 (0.2%) New
Lab GAIN from Ref
Triggered by the resignation of the Reform incumbent after just eight weeks in the role. She had been elected on May 7, but stood down due to unspecified 'personal reasons'. Reform swept Labour aside in Barnsley that day, no mean feat considering the local authority had been in Labour hands for the entirety of its 52 year history. Labour had maintained control in the 2024 elections with 48 seats, but were reduced to just 11 as the red wall town turned turqoise. Penistone East resisted the Reform surge to a degree, with two of its three seats going to Labour (first and third). With an impressive result on Thursday, all three of those seats are now red and the ward has lost its only Reform councillor. Perhaps this is no great surprise given the circumstances of a resignation that cost local taxpayers a reported £35,000 to organise a by-election to replace her. These rapid departures could get much worse for Reform after next May's elections, as most of their best people are now already councillors and at some point the barrel is going to be scraped. Shout out to Restore Britain, who scored an impressive result here in a very rare local election outing, albeit once again failing to dent Reform's supremacy. And spare a thought for that lowly independent candidate - just two votes!
Karl - Ref HOLD ✘
Rich - Lab GAIN ✔
Harraby South, Cumberland Council
Ref: 560 (46.2%) New
Lab: 469 (33.3%) -7.6%
Con: 236 (16.8%) -18.5%
Grn: 29 (2.1%) New
LDm: 23 (1.6%) New
Ref GAIN from Lab
Another by-election triggered by a resignation for unspecified 'personal reasons'. The Labour incumbent won this seat in the inaugural Cumberland Council election of 2022. This curiously named authority lends its name to an ancient county that ceased to exist in 1974 when it was replaced by the new entity of Cumbria. While Cumbria still exists as the official county name, its county council was abolished and divided into two administrations for the 2022 election, one of which was Cumberland. Labour won control of Cumberland with relative ease and were by far the largest party with 30 seats to the Conservatives' seven. Labour have since lost five of those seats - through resignations and defections - and have now lost a sixth to Reform, who on Thursday surged into first place from scratch. Interesting to note that Reform were not the only newcomers, but the Greens and Lib Dems could muster only 52 votes between them. There was no independent candidate this time, having finished last in 2022 with 369 votes.
Karl - Ref GAIN ✔
Rich - Con GAIN ✘
Leen Valley, Nottingham City Council
Lab: 689 (30.5%) -33.8%
Ind: 523 (23.2%) New
Ref: 410 (18.2%) New
Grn: 378 (16.7%) New
Con: 189 (8.4%) -13.3%
LDm: 68 (3.0%) -11.0%
Lab HOLD
We're used to seeing Reform and Green novices disregard their duties, but this by-election was triggered by a lousy Labour councillor who failed to attend a single council meeting for more than six months. Despite being warned in writing, the councillor did not respond and was automatically disqualified from office. The hijab-wearing individual was elected in the 2023 election, but quit Labour six months later on account of Keir Starmer's position on Gaza. She went on to serve for two and a half years as an independent. Nottingham is about as red as it gets and we're not talking about the football team. Labour have been in control here since 1991, and a split in their ranks last year did not seriously impact their majority. Six councillors left to form the 'Nottingham People's Alliance' and they made Leen Valley their debut election. It's fair to say they pushed Labour hard for victory, with Labour's majority crashing from almost a thousand votes to less than 200. It was also an impressive new entry for Reform in a ward that has a huge Muslim population and a white minority of 42 per cent. Despite these demographics, only Labour and the Nottingham People's Alliance fielded Muslim candidates. It was therefore no great surprise to see these were the top two candidates as our country develops into an increasingly sectarian political landscape. For the sake of consistency, the Nottingham People's Alliance are referred to in brackets as 'Independents', as per all localised groups.
Karl - Lab HOLD ✔
Rich - Ind GAIN ✘
St Neots Eynesbury, Huntingdonshire District Council
LDm: 1,024 (47.9%) +29.8%
Ref: 647 (30.3%) +3.1%
Con: 143 (6.7%) -3.8%
Grn: 118 (5.5%) -12.5%
Lab: 104 (4.9%) New
Ind: 102 (4.8%) New
LDm GAIN from Ref
Another vacancy triggered by a departing Reform councillor, having only been elected seven weeks earlier. In keeping with the secretive nature of this week's resignations, his decision was put down to those elusive 'personal reasons'. There were three seats up for grabs here on May 7 and the incumbent topped the poll, with second place going to an independent and third place going to another Reform candidate. Like Cumberland above, Huntingdonshire was an ancient English county that was also abolished in 1974. It was incorporated into the county of Cambridgeshire and relegated to district status. The Conservatives went on to control this new district between 1976 and 2022, when it fell into no overall control. It is currently administered by a minority coalition of Lib Dems and independents. The nature of the incumbents' rapid departure was always going to make this a tricky defence and so it proved to be, with Reform losing its second seat on the night. The Lib Dems have a strong presence in these parts and it showed, with a huge surge. Voters appear to be abandoning the Greens in ever greater numbers, but on this occasion they largely opted for the Lib Dems rather than reverting back to Labour. The Labour candidate avoided a wooden spoon finish by the narrow margin of just two votes.
Karl - Ref HOLD ✘
Rich - LDm GAIN ✔
Richey led Karl by seven points going into week 12 and so it remains. The pair had unusually diverged in their forecasts across the board, but merely cancelled each other out in a dead heat.














































