COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 21.05.26

Four seats were up for grabs this week, the first council contests since Labour's drubbing on May 7.  The preview now takes on a little bit of a different format, with predictions given by Karl and Richey individually.  This is both a time saving exercise and also opens up a bit of competition, which after this round of by-elections favours Karl.  He predicted two out of four correctly, compared to Richey's paltry one.

Bridport, Dorset Council

LDm: 2,190 (43.6%) +8.2%

Ref: 1,164 (23.2%) New

Grn: 1,011 (20.1%) -11.9%

Con: 656 (13.1%) -4.0%

LDm HOLD

Dorset is run by a coalition of Lib Dems and Greens, and this contest looked set to be a showdown between the two parties.  The Greens selected their previous councillor for the seat, who lost to the Lib Dems in the 2024 local elections.  He was defeated a second time and pushed into third place by Reform.  The result wasn't even close, with the Lib Dems more than twice the amount of votes picked up by the Greens and over a thousand votes ahead of Reform.

Karl - LDm HOLD ✔

Rich - Grn GAIN ✘

Kirkham, Fylde Borough Council

Con: 1,185 (60.6%) +33.9%

Ref: 534 (27.3%) New

Lab: 129 (6.6%) -13.8%

LDm: 107 (5.5%) New

Con GAIN from Ind

This ward was very much into their independents, but there weren't any standing this time around.  The Tories usually finish distant runners-up here, but had to fend off newcomers in Reform and the Lib Dems to take the seat.  They did so with ease, polling more than twice the number of Reform votes.  Big fail for both of us here.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

Castle, Lancaster City Council

Grn: 845 (70.0%) +4.9%

Lab: 190 (15.7%) -10.6%

Ref: 132 (10.9%) New

LDm: 41 (3.4%) n/c

Grn HOLD

The incumbent Green councillor had stood down after completing her studies at Lancaster University and moving away.  This was a solid left-wing affair, with the Conservatives not having bothered to even field a candidate this time.  Reform debuted nonetheless, but it was a routine hold for Zack's crazy gang.

Karl - Grn HOLD ✔

Rich - Grn HOLD ✔

Alfrick, Leigh & Rushwick, Malvern Hills District Council

LDm: 452 (25.8%) +10.6%

Con: 391 (22.3%) +3.2%

Ref: 340 (19.4%) New

Ind: 296 (16.9%) New

Grn: 190 (10.8%) New

Ind: 83 (4.7%) New

LDm GAIN from Ind

Another free-for-all, following the resignation of the incumbent Malvern Hills Independent.  His group did not contest this time, although there were two unaligned independents standing.  The Tories usually finish a distant second here and were up against newcomers Reform and the Greens.  The Lib Dems took advantage of a split in the conservative vote and surged through the middle to keep the Tories in second.

Karl - Ind GAIN ✘

Rich - Ref GAIN ✘

TOON TUESDAY #103

We begin this week where we left off last week - with Keir Starmer's premiership in tatters...

Christian Adams for The Daily Telegraph

Matt Pritchett for The Daily Telegraph

Christian Adams for The Daily Telegraph

Peter Brookes for The Times

Christian Adams for The Daily Telegraph

Steve Lillie for The Guardian

Christian Adams for The Sunday Telegraph

Patrick Blower for The Daily Telegraph

Andy Bunday on Instagram

Ella Baron for The Guardian

Morten Morland for The Times

Ben Jennings for The Guardian

Christian Adams for The Daily Telegraph

Morten Morland for The Times

Chris Riddell for The Observer

Morten Morland for The Times

Peter Brookes for The Times

Morten Morland for The Sunday Times

Matt Pritchett for The Daily Telegraph

Nick Newman for The Sunday Times

Matt Pritchett for The Daily Telegraph

ALISTAIR WHO?

Alistair Carns

Alistair Carns is not a name that has graced these pages too often, in fact only once before has his name appeared - as part of the ghoulish club of sick MPs who last year backed both euthanasia of adult human beings and the abortion of full term babies.  He is not exactly a household name and has only been an MP since 2024.  Despite this, he is being talked about as a potential leadership candidate and is reportedly keen on entering a leadership contest, as and when it comes.

Carns is clearly an ambitious guy and has a long track record in climbing the ladder of success.  He is an outlier in the PLP on several fronts - he has served his country, did not attend university and is a working class lad (although he abbreviates his name to 'Al' in order to appear more down to earth).  His meteoric rise through the ranks of the British Army is very impressive.  Having enlisted as a Royal Marine Commando in 1999, he progressed to the Special Boat Service and enjoyed regular promotions up to the rank of colonel in 2021.  He was to be promoted again - to brigadier - in 2024, but instead chose a new career path in politics.  He succeeded fellow Scot Steve McCabe as the MP for Birmingham Selly Oak.

He scaled Mount Everest last year at the age of 45, while he was a junior minister.  He was promoted to Armed Forces minister last September and appears to be keen on keeping up the promotions as he did during his distinguished military career.  Ladbrokes are currently offering odds of 16-1 on Carns succeeding Starmer, odds that are only bettered by Burnham, Rayner, Streeting and Miliband.  A maximum of five candidates can compete in a Labour leadership election, in addition to the incumbent.  However, that is based on an equal set of nominations for each candidate, which is an unlikely scenario.  Mr Carns would probably need a couple of the favourites to drop out if he were to get on the ballot.

His biggest drawback is recognition.  In a recent YouGov poll, Carns polled zero per cent from a sample size of 706 Labour members, compared to 47 per cent for Burnham.  Six other names polled between 31 per cent (Starmer) and one per cent (Mahmood).

How does a man who chose a career fighting in our military end up in a party that despises Britain?  It's not clear as and when he joined Labour, but we do know that he was headhunted personally by Starmer and parachuted into a safe Labour seat in the south of Birmingham.  Again, at odds with his military background, he recently opted to join in criticism of the Raise the Colours movement, which originated in Brum.

He wrote to West Midlands Police last week, making a series of allegations about Raise the Colours activists and suggesting that injunctions could be imposed in order to ban the flying of flags.  His letter can be seen below.

Flag flying in parts of Birmingham, which are not traditionally working class areas or are more ethnically diverse, can be a contentious pursuit.  Woke middle class residents in the Moseley area were outraged to find British flags flying from lamp posts in their community.  They proceeded to tear them down.

A similar backlash appears to have occurred more recently in nearby Stirchley, again another gentrified middle class area.  However, while Carns takes a one-sided approach to lay all the blame with the flag bearers, various videos online suggest that lefty mobs are challenging Raise the Colours and trying to impede their activities.  This has clearly led to street confrontations, which is not a one-sided affair Mr Carns.  And as for claiming that 'many' members of Raise the Colours are 'not from Birmingham', that's incredibly rich coming from an MP who had zero links with the city prior to being parachuted in by Starmer in 2024!

We don't see this self-publicist taking over from Starmer anytime soon, but he's quite possibly one to watch for the future.  Birmingham Selly Oak is one of the few seats that Labour could possibly retain in the event of an electoral thumping, although Carns could face stiff opposition from the Greens.  In the recent local elections, the Green Party took most of the council seats in this constituency.  Seeing as Carns re-enlisted as an army reservist just four months after being elected to Parliament, perhaps he is covering all angles in the eventuality that his political career is cut short...

MEME MONDAY #83

Another bumper crop of memes from Karl to get through.  If it seemed like a long week, imagine how Chairman Starmer felt as he took blow after blow, day after day.  Remarkably, he emerged at the end of the week still at the helm and with no apparent intention of going anywhere.  Credit where it's due, the robot is clinging on.  For now...

Mon 11 May - 287 shares

Mon 11 May - 31 shares

Mon 11 May - 8 shares

Tue 12 May - 13 shares

Tue 12 May - 10 shares

Wed 13 May - 34 shares

Wed 13 May - 35 shares.  Unfortunately for Wes, it appears that he
didn't quite have the numbers to launch an immediate leadership
challenge and he'll now have to sit on the backbenches and await the
outcome of the Makerfield by-election

Wed 13 May - 13 shares

Wed 13 May - 496 shares

Thu 14 May - 133 shares

Thu 14 May - 5 shares.  It was a good attack line by Kemi, but it seems that our
followers - like much of the country - are no longer interested in the blue half of
the Uniparty

Fri 15 May - 23 shares

Fri 15 May - 882 shares

Fri 15 May - 38 shares.  Originally posted lasted year,
when initial murmours of Burnham's attempted
leadership coup began to circulate.  The meme is
based on a famous scene from Game of Thrones in
which Stannis Baratheon's siege of Winterfell is
foiled by Ramsay Bolton (Farage)

Sat 16 May - 131 shares

Sat 16 May - 328 shares.  A reference to Starmer's ban on 11 Unite the Kingdom
speakers entering the UK.  It wasn't so long ago that he told a press conference
alongside President Trump:  "We have a long history of free speech in this
country and I'll defend it"

Sat 16 May - 246 shares

Sun 17 May - 256 shares.  JK Rowling may be at odds with the right on most
things, but no-one can deny that the author has a debilitating command of words
when it comes to rubbishing her opponents.  This was a cracking rebuke for
Starmer.

Sun 17 May - 24 shares.  The UK's solitary point at EuroVision came from the
Ukraine.  Scant return for £22billion sent to that country in the last four years!

Sun 17 May - 32 shares

A diverse series of Facebook Stories were put out last week.  Note that we are playing Devil's advocate somewhat with Starmer's leadership woes.  The truth is that we don't actually want him to go - he is the greatest threat to the Labour party in existence right now.  Toxic isn't the word!  Keep Keir!!

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