Thursday, 31 October 2019

IN FOCUS: MANCHESTER

There are five Parliamentary seats that cover the city of Manchester.  Two of these seats cross the city boundaries and are partially composed of neighbouring council authorities.  These are Blackley & Broughton (includes part of Trafford) and Wythenshawe & Sale East (includes part of Salford).


Population (2018 est):  547,627
City Council:  Labour, since 1973 (inception)
Composition:  Labour (92 cllrs), Lib Dem (3), Ind (1)
Ethnic make-up (2011):  white 66.7%, Asian 14.4%, black 8.6%, mixed 4.7%, Chinese 2.7%, Arab 1.9%, other 1.2%
EU referendum:  60.4% Remain
Largest Parliamentary majority:  Manchester Gorton (Afzal Khan, Lab) majority 31,730
Smallest Parliamentary majority:  Wythenshawe & Sale East (Mike Kane, Lab) majority 14,944

Manchester is a solid Labour city and there has not been a single Conservative councillor elected here since 2010.  Following the 2014 and 2015 local elections Labour held all 96 seats on the council.  The Lib Dems were a significant presence here until 2011, after which they lost most of their seats over their involvement in the coalition government.  At the next general election they also lost Manchester Withington, making the city all red again for the first time since 2001.

The city has a significant Muslim population, 15.8% according to the 2011 census.  They are represented disproportionately in the council chamber and make up one in five Labour councillors.

In the 2017 general election Conservative candidates came runners-up in three of Manchester's seats, but won't be expecting to make any gains here next time.  The Lib Dems will be hoping to surge back into contention, taking advantage of Manchester's strong Remain sympathies.  However, they are too far behind now to retake Withington from Labour, a seat that in any case is represented by ardent Labour Remainer Jeff Smith.

With the exception of Afzal Khan, all of Manchester's MPs were born in the city.  All but one (Graham Stringer) are Remainers.  In the 2016 leadership election three MPs backed Owen Smith, while two did not publicly endorse either candidate.

Blackley & Broughton

Incumbent:  Graham Stringer (Lab), majority 19,601
Born:  Manchester, 1950
First elected:  1997 (for Manchester Blackley)
Leave/Remain:  Leave
Notes:  Led Manchester City Council between 1984 and 1996.  Did not publicly endorse either candidate in the 2016 leadership challenge.  Attempts were made to deselect him in 2018 over his pro-Brexit stance, but the vote failed to carry.

Blackley & Broughton has been held by Labour since its creation in 2010, prior to that the seat of Manchester Blackley was held by Labour since 1964.  While most of the current seat falls within the city boundaries, it also comprises two wards from neighbouring Salford.

EU referendum:  50.04% Leave (only Leave seat in Manchester)

General election 2017

Graham Stringer (Lab) 28,258 (70.5%) +8.6%
David Goss (Con) 8,657 (21.6%) +6.6%
Martin Power (UKIP) 1,825 (4.6%) -12.0%
Richard Gadsden (Lib Dem) 737 (1.8%) -0.6%
David Jones (Green) 462 (1.2%) -3.1%
Abi Ajoku (Christian) 174 (0.2%) New

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Manchester Central

Incumbent:  Lucy Powell (Lab), majority 31,445
Born:  Manchester, 1974
First elected:  2012 (by-election)
Leave/Remain:  Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes:  Manchester's first female MP.  Endorsed Owen Smith in 2016 leadership challenge.

Manchester Central has been held by Labour since its creation in 1974

EU referendum:  64% Remain

General election 2017

Lucy Powell (Lab) 38,490 (77.4%) +16.1%
Xingang Wang (Con) 7,045 (14.2%) +0.6%
John Bridges (Lib Dem) 1,678 (3.4%) -0.7%
Kalvin Chapman (UKIP) 1,469 (3.0%) -8.1%
Rachael Shah (Green) 846 (1.7%) -6.8%
Neil Blackburn (Pirate) 192 (0.4%) -0.4%

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Manchester Gorton

Incumbent:  Afzal Khan (Lab), majority 31,730
Born:  Pakistan, 1958
First elected:  2017
Leave/Remain:  Remain
Scandals:  Anti-Semitism
Notes:  Came to the UK aged 11.  Qualified solicitor.  Awarded a CBE in 2012 for race relations work.  Manchester's first Muslim MP.

Manchester Gorton has been held by Labour since 1935

EU referendum:  62% Remain

General election 2017

Afzal Khan (Lab) 35,085 (76.3%) +9.3%
Shaden Jaradat (Con) 3,355 (7.3%) -2.4%
George Galloway (Ind) 2,615 (5.7%) New
Jackie Pearcey (Lib Dem) 2,597 (5.7%) +1.4%
Jess Mayo (Green) 1,038 (2.3%) -7.5%
Phil Eckersley (UKIP) 952 (2.1%) -6.1%
Kemi Abidogun (Christian) 233 (0.5%) New
David Hopkins (Ind) 51 (0.1%) New
Peter Clifford (Communist) 27 (0.1%) New

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Manchester Withington

Incumbent:  Jeff Smith (Lab), majority 29,875
Born:  Manchester, 1963
First elected:  2015
Leave/Remain:  Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes:  Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.

Manchester Withington has been held by Labour since 2015, before which it was held by the Lib Dems since 2005

EU referendum:  75% Remain (strongest Remain seat in Manchester)

General election 2017

Jeff Smith (Lab) 38,424 (71.7%) +18.0%
John Leech (Lib Dem) 8,549 (15.9%) -8.0%
Sarah Heald (Con) 5,530 (10.3%) +0.6%
Laura Bannister (Green) 865 (1.6%) -6.5%
Sally Carr (Women's Equality) 234 (0.4%) New

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Wythenshawe & Sale East

Incumbent:  Mike Kane (Lab), majority 14,944
Born:  Manchester, 1969
First elected:  2014 (by-election)
Leave/Remain:  Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes:  Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.

Wythenshawe & Sale East has been held by Labour since its creation in 1997.  Most of the current boundaries lie within the city, but it includes three council wards from neighbouring Trafford.

EU referendum:  50.35% Remain

General election 2017

Jeff Smith (Lab) 38,424 (71.7%) +18.0%
John Leech (Lib Dem) 8,549 (15.9%) -8.0%
Sarah Heald (Con) 5,530 (10.3%) +0.6%
Laura Bannister (Green) 865 (1.6%) -6.5%
Sally Carr (Women's Equality) 234 (0.4%) New

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD


NEXT WEEK:  Glasgow

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