ODDS SHORTENING ON BREXIT DEAL

The bookies now have Boris Johnson's revised withdrawal agreement passing tomorrow as 'odds on'.  Ladbrokes and Coral have the ayes at 8/11, while Betfred and Paddy Power have 4/6.  There's clearly not much in it as the same bookies have the deal failing at evens (Ladbrokes/Coral), 11/10 (Paddy Power) and 6/5 (Betfred).  However, all major bookmakers report that odds of the deal passing are shortening and odds of it failing are drifting, albeit it's worth noting that this doesn't take into account potentially fatal amendments that would pave the way for another Brexit delay.

The shortening of odds may have something to do with the tiny trickle of Labour MPs voicing their support for the deal throughout the afternoon and into this evening.  With the DUP and every opposition party opposed to the deal, Boris will need as many Labour rebels as possible to get his deal through.  Labour MPs who have either indicated or are expected to vote in favour of the agreement are as follows:

Ronnie Campbell
Sarah Champion (expected)
Jim Fitzpatrick (expected)
Caroline Flint (expected)
John Mann
Melanie Onn

Others who are keeping their cards close to their chest include Kevin Barron, Gloria De Piero, Stevie Kinnock, Stephanie Peacock, Ruth Smeeth, Gareth Snell and Graham Stringer.

Several independents are also undeclared, but it's highly likely that Ian Austin, Frank Field and Kelvin Hopkins will back the government.

Threats such as this one will have no impact at all on the way that I vote.

But I do have a question for Jon, as a vocal supporter of local member led democracy, why did you think it was appropriate to not shortlist ANY local members for the upcoming selection in Rother Valley? https://t.co/og4o7kjtyM

— Kevin Barron MP (@KevinBarronMP) October 18, 2019

My constituent Graham Norman just came to my surgery. He is a lifelong Unite member who voted Leave. He begged me to vote for a deal tomorrow. I haven’t decided what I’ll do but when I look at some people’s comments on twitter calling people like him a Tory - I despair pic.twitter.com/D46z07KHwb

— Gloria De Piero (@GloriaDePiero) October 18, 2019

And here is Jason, another Ashfield Labour member who voted to Leave. He is just as much of a socialist as those Labour members who voted to Remain. https://t.co/UuAs53q73U

— Gloria De Piero (@GloriaDePiero) October 18, 2019

Every single one of these MPs have faced the full keyboard tapping fury of anti-Brexit Labour activists and Remainers at large.  The bile and hate that has spewed forth will hopefully toughen their resolve, but we don't have long to wait now.  One thing is for sure - if biased Bercow and his Remain Alliance have anything to do with it, proceedings will be far from simple.