Thursday, 7 November 2019

IN FOCUS: GLASGOW

Glasgow is Scotland's largest city and the third most populated city in the UK, after London and Birmingham.  It is currently divided into seven constituencies for elections to the UK Parliament and nine constituencies for elections to the Scottish Parliament.  All Glasgow seats for the Scottish Parliament are currently held by the SNP, the map below shows the Westminster constituencies.


Population (2018 est):  626,410
City Council:  No overall control, since 2017
Composition:  SNP (38 cllrs), Labour (30), Conservatives (8), Green (7), Ind (2)
Ethnic make-up (2011):  white 88.4%, Asian 8.0%, black 2.5%, mixed 0.5%, Arab 0.4%, other 0.2%
Scottish independence referendum:  53.5% Yes
EU referendum:  66.6% Remain
Largest UK Parliamentary majority:  Glasgow North West (Carol Monaghan, SNP) majority 2,561
Smallest UK Parliamentary majority:  Glasgow South West (Chris Stephens, SNP) majority 60

Glasgow was until fairly recently a solid Labour city.  Before the SNP post-referendum surge of 2015 Labour held every UK Parliamentary seat here.  After that election they held none.  They also ran the council until 2017, when for the first time since 1980 they lost overall control.  The fall in Labour support here mirrored the party's decline across Scotland, due in part to the rise of the SNP, but in Glasgow it also haemorrhaged support to both the Tories and the Greens.  The SNP has never controlled Glasgow City Council, but that could well change after the next local elections in 2022.

For elections to the Scottish Parliament, once again Labour were in complete control and held every seat up until 2007.  In that election they lost one seat to the SNP.  Four years later they lost a further four seats and in 2016 they were completely wiped out by the SNP.  SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has represented the Glasgow Govan constituency since 2007.

Glasgow voted Yes to Scottish independence in 2014 and also voted heavily to Remain in the EU two years later.  All city MPs voted to block the triggering of Article 50, at which time all seven were SNP.  Labour won one seat back in 2017, albeit with a tiny majority.  Two more seats are among the most marginal in the UK, with the SNP clinging on in 2017 with majorities of just 60 and 75.  However, with the current state of Labour in Scotland they are not expected to make any gains here next month.

Please note that the following are Westminster constituencies.

Glasgow Central

Incumbent:  Alison Thewliss (SNP), majority 2,267
Born:  Lanark, 1982
First elected:  2015
Leave/Remain:  Remain, voted against triggering Article 50

Glasgow Central has been held by the SNP since 2015, before which it was held by Labour since 1950

EU referendum:  71% Remain

General election 2017

Alison Thewliss (SNP) 16,096 (44.7%) -7.8%
Faten Hameed (Lab) 13,829 (38.4%) +5.4%
Charlotte Fairbanks (Con) 5,014 (13.9%) +7.9%
Isabel Nelson (Lib Dem) 1,045 (2.9%) +1.3%

BTLP general election prediction:  SNP HOLD

Glasgow East

Incumbent:  David Linden (SNP), majority 75
Born:  Glasgow, 1990
First elected:  2017
Leave/Remain:  Remain

Glasgow East was created out of boundary changes in 2005 and has changed hands between Labour and the SNP three times since.  It is one of the tightest marginals in the UK.

EU referendum:  56% Remain

General election 2017

David Linden (SNP) 14,024 (38.8%) -18.1%
Kate Watson (Lab) 13,949 (38.6%) +6.2%
Thomas Kerr (Con) 6,816 (18.8%) +12.8%
Matthew Clark (Lib Dem) 576 (1.6%) +0.8%
John Ferguson (UKIP) 502 (1.4%) -1.2%
Karin Finegan (Ind) 158 (0.4%) New
Steven Marshall (SDP) 148 0.4%) New

BTLP general election prediction:  SNP HOLD

Glasgow North

Incumbent:  Patrick Grady (SNP), majority 1,060
Born:  Edinburgh, 1980
First elected:  2015
Leave/Remain:  Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes:  Also a member of Plaid Cymru

Glasgow North has been held by the SNP since 2015, before which it was held by Labour since the seat was created in 2005

EU referendum:  78% Remain

General election 2017

Patrick Grady (SNP) 12,597 (37.6%) -15.5%
Pam Duncan-Glancy (Lab) 11,537 (34.5%) +6.5%
Stuart Cullen (Con) 4,935 (14.7%) +6.9%
Patrick Harvie (Green) 3,251 (9.7%) +3.5%
Calum Shepherd (Lib Dem) 1,153 (3.4%) +0.7%

BTLP general election prediction:  SNP HOLD

Glasgow North East

Incumbent:  Paul Sweeney (Lab), majority 242
Born:  Glasgow, 1989
First elected:  2017
Leave/Remain:  Remain
Notes:  A former army reservist, one of three Labour MPs to have served in HM Armed Forces.

Glasgow North East was created out of boundary changes in 2005 and has changed hands between Labour and the SNP twice since.

EU referendum:  59% Remain

General election 2017

Paul Sweeney (Lab) 13,637 (42.9%) +9.2%
Anne McLaughlin (SNP) 13,395 (42.2%) -15.9%
Jack Wylie (Con) 4,106 (12.9%) +8.2%
Daniel Donaldson (Lib Dem) 637 (2.0%) +1.2%

BTLP general election prediction:  SNP GAIN

Glasgow North West

Incumbent:  Carol Monaghan (SNP), majority 2,561
Born:  Glasgow, 1972
First elected:  2015
Leave/Remain:  Remain, voted against triggering Article 50

Glasgow North West has been held by the SNP since 2015, before which it was held by Labour since the seat was created in 2005.

EU referendum:  69% Remain

General election 2017

Carol Monaghan (SNP) 16,508 (42.5%) -12.0%
Michael Shanks (Lab) 13,947 (35.9%) +5.0%
Christopher Land (Con) 7,002 (18.0%) +9.6%
James Speirs (Lib Dem) 1,387 (3.6%) +0.8%

BTLP general election prediction:  SNP HOLD

Glasgow South

Incumbent:  Stewart McDonald (SNP), majority 2,027
Born:  Glasgow, 1986
First elected:  2015
Leave/Remain:  Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes:  LGBT activist

Glasgow South has been held by the SNP since 2015, before which it was held by Labour since the seat was created in 2005.

EU referendum:  72% Remain

General election 2017

Stewart McDonald (SNP) 18,312 (41.1%) -13.8%
Eileen Dinning (Lab) 16,285 (36.6%) +6.8%
Taylor Muir (Con) 8,506 (19.1%) +9.4%
Ewan Hoyle (Lib Dem) 1,447 (3.2%) +1.2%

BTLP general election prediction:  SNP HOLD

Glasgow South West

Incumbent:  Chris Stephens (SNP), majority 60
Born:  Glasgow, 1973
First elected:  2015
Leave/Remain:  Remain, voted against triggering Article 50

Glasgow South West has been held by the SNP since 2015, before which it was held by Labour since the seat was created in 2005.

EU referendum:  59% Remain

General election 2017

Chris Stephens (SNP) 14,386 (40.7%) -16.5%
Matt Kerr (Lab) 14,326 (40.5%) +7.7%
Thomas Haddow (Con) 5,524 (15.6%) +10.6%
Ben Denton-Cardew (Lib Dem) 661 (1.9%) +0.9%
Sarah Hemy (UKIP) 481 (1.4%) -1.0%

BTLP general election prediction:  SNP HOLD


NEXT WEEK:  Sheffield

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