Thursday, 21 November 2019

IN FOCUS: LIVERPOOL

A supposed bastion of the hard left, Liverpool contains four Parliamentary constituencies inside its city boundaries.  A fifth seat - Garston and Halewood - overlaps with neighbouring Knowsley and consists of five Liverpool council wards and three Knowsley wards.  At the 2017 general election all five seats returned Labour MPs, but two of whom have since resigned from the party (Luciana Berger and Louise Ellman).


Population (2018 est):  494,814
City Council:  Labour, since 2010
Composition:  Labour (72 cllrs), Lib Dem (10), Green (4), Liberal (3), Ind (1)
Ethnic make-up (2011):  white 88.8%, Asian 4.1%, black 2.6%, mixed 2.5%, Arab 1.2%, other 0.8%
EU referendum:  58% Remain
Largest Parliamentary majority:  Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman, Ind*) majority 35,947
Smallest Parliamentary majority:  Liverpool Wavertree (Luciana Berger, Lib Dem*) majority 29,466

* Elected as Labour MPs

Liverpool has returned a solid slate of Labour MPs since the Labour landslide of 1997.  The last non-Labour MP elected here was the Liberal Democrat David Alton who held the seat of Liverpool Mossley Hill until its abolition in 1997.  All five MPs elected in 2017 had huge majorities and Liverpool Walton is regarded as the safest Labour seat in Britain.  However, of the five members elected in 2017 only two are defending their seats at the forthcoming election.  Two Jewish MPs (Berger and Ellman) were driven out of the party and Stephen Twigg has opted not to stand again.

The recent selection process to replace these MPs was marred by controversy.  Accusations of a stitch-up swirled as outsiders were installed on the ballot paper in favour of local candidates.  One of those in the running was a councillor all the way from Islington no less.  It wouldn't be the first time outsiders were chosen for the ultra safe seats of Liverpool, but this time the stitch-up was largely defeated.  It should be noted that only one of the five incumbents is a Scouser.  In a month's time this is highly likely to have risen to four out of five.

Although the Parliamentary return has been a solid red for more than two decades, contrary to popular opinion the city council has been less so.  The famed hard left have frequently lost control in Liverpool over the years.  Following the last Tory-led council of 1972 the council has actually spent more time out of Labour's control.  Intermittent periods of no overall control was followed by a stable period of Lib Dem control between 1998 and 2010.  Following the electoral backlash against Lib Dem involvement in the coalition government, Labour has asserted itself with an overwhelming majority.  This is currently the longest ever period of Labour control in Liverpool.

A secondary layer of local government here is the Liverpool City Region.  This combined authority also takes in the neighbouring local authorities of Halton, Knowsley, St Helens, Sefton and the Wirral.  The elected mayor is Labour's Joe Anderson, also the leader of Liverpool City Council.

Liverpool voted to Remain in 2016 and all its MPs are Remainers, including three hard Remainers who in 2017 voted against triggering Article 50 (Ellman, Berger and Eagle).  Despite the city's reputation, Jeremy Corbyn found little support among its MPs during the 2016 leadership challenge, four out of five of whom backed Owen Smith.

Liverpool Riverside

Incumbent:  Louise Ellman (Ind), majority 35,947
Born:  Manchester, 1945
First elected:  1997, as a Labour MP
Leave/Remain:  Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes:  Ellman is Jewish and quit Labour in October 2019 in protest at Labour anti-Semitism and Jeremy Corbyn's leadership.  This followed multiple attempts to have her deselected.  She became Dame Louise Ellman in 2018.  In the 2016 leadership challenge she endorsed Owen Smith.  Ellman is not standing in the forthcoming election.

Riverside was held by Labour since its creation in 1983

EU referendum:  73% Remain, strongest Remain seat in Liverpool

General election 2017

Louise Ellman (Lab) 40,599 (84.5%) +17.1%
Pamela Hall (Con) 4,652 (9.7%) +0.1%
Stephanie Pitchers (Green) 1,582 (3.3%) -8.8%
Tom Sebire (Lib Dem) 1,187 (2.5%) -1.4%

General election candidates 2019

Kim Johnson (Lab)
Sean Malkeson (Con)
Tom Crone (Green)
Robert McAllister-Bell (Lib Dem)
David Leach (Brexit)

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Liverpool Walton

Incumbent:  Dan Carden (Lab), majority 32,551
Born:  Liverpool, 1986
First elected:  2017
Leave/Remain:  Remain
Notes:  Shadow Secretary of State for International Development.
Scandals:  Hey Jews

Walton has been held by Labour since 1964.  After the last general election it is the safest Labour seat in Britain.

EU referendum:  52% Leave, only Leave seat in Liverpool

General election 2017

Dan Carden (Lab) 36,175 (85.7%) +4.4%
Laura Evans (Con) 3,624 (8.6%) +3.9%
Terry May (Ind) 1,237 (2.9%) New
Kris Brown (Lib Dem) 638 (1.5%) -0.8%
Colm Feeley (Green) 523 (1.2%) -1.2%

General election candidates 2019

Dan Carden (Lab)
Alex Phillips (Con)
David Newman (Lib Dem)
Ted Grant (Green)
Billy Lake (Liberal)

Note:  UKIP came second here with 9% of the vote in 2015, so the absence of a Brexit Party candidate is rather inexplicable.

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Liverpool Wavertree

Incumbent:  Luciana Berger (Lib Dem), majority 29,466
Born:  London, 1981
First elected:  2010, as a Labour MP
Leave/Remain:  Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes:  Berger is Jewish and quit Labour in February 2019 alongside six other MPs to form Change UK.  She later switched to the Liberal Democrats, but will not defend her seat at the next election.  Instead, she will be contesting the London seat of Finchley & Golders Green.  Berger was privately educated.  In the 2016 leadership challenge she endorsed Owen Smith.

Wavertree was held by Labour since its creation in 1997

EU referendum:  65% Remain

General election 2017

Luciana Berger (Lab) 34,717 (79.5%) +10.2%
Denise Haddad (Con) 5,251 (12.0%) +2.0%
Richard Kemp (Lib Dem) 2,858 (6.5%) +0.5%
Ted Grant (Green) 598 (1.4%) -3.8%
Adam Heatherington (Ind) 216 (0.5%) New

General election candidates 2019

Paula Barker (Lab)
Catherine Mulhern (Con)
Richard Kemp (Lib Dem)
Kay Inckle (Green)
Adam Heatherington (Brexit)
Mick Coyne (Liberal)

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Liverpool West Derby

Incumbent:  Stephen Twigg (Lab), majority 32,908
Born:  London, 1966
First elected:  1997, for Enfield Southgate
Leave/Remain:  Remain, but voted to trigger Article 50
Notes:  Twigg rose to fame when he unseated cabinet minister Michael Portillo in 1997.  The Tories retook the seat in 2005 and Twigg was out of Parliament until 2010 when he was selected for the safe Labour seat of Liverpool West Derby.  Served on the front benches in both government and opposition, but is not standing this time.  Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.
Scandals:  Drunk and incapable

West Derby has been held by Labour since 1964

EU referendum:  50.2% Remain

General election 2017

Stephen Twigg (Lab) 37,371 (82.8%) +7.6%
Paul Richardson (Con) 4,463 (9.9%) +3.3%
Steve Radford (Liberal) 2,150 (4.8%) -0.2%
Paul Parr (Lib Dem) 545 (1.2%) -1.1%
Will Ward (Green) 329 (0.7%) -1.7%
Graham Hughes (Ind) 305 (0.7) New

General election candidates 2019

Ian Byrne (Lab)
Tom Bradley (Con)
Steve Radford (Liberal)
Paul Parr (Lib Dem)
Will Ward (Green)
Ray Pearson (Brexit)

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD

Garston & Halewood

Incumbent:  Maria Eagle (Lab), majority 32,149
Born:  East Yorkshire, 1961
First elected:  1997
Leave/Remain:  Remain, voted against triggering Article 50
Notes:  Elected to Parliament at the second attempt (she unsuccessfully contested Crosby in 1992).  Twin sister of fellow Labour MP Angela Eagle.  Served on the front benches in both government and opposition.  Endorsed Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership challenge.
Scandals:  Expenses scandal

Garston & Halewood has been held by Labour since its creation in 2010.  It largely follows the boundaries of the previous seat of Liverpool Halewood which was held by Labour between 1983-2010.  The new seat absorbed three council wards from neighbouring Knowsley.

EU referendum:  52% Remain

General election 2017

Maria Eagle (Lab) 41,599 (77.7%) +8.6%
Adam Marsden (Con) 9,450 (17.7%) +4.0%
Anna Martin (Lib Dem) 1,723 (3.2%) -1.5%
Lawrence Brown (Green) 750 (1.4%) -2.1%

General election candidates 2019

Maria Eagle (Lab)
Neva Novaky (Con)
Kris Brown (Lib Dem)
Jean-Paul Roberts (Green)
Jake Fraser (Brexit)
Hazel Williams (Liberal)

BTLP general election prediction:  Lab HOLD


NEXT WEEK:  Bristol

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