STARMER IN THE FIRST ROUND?

YouGov's latest poll of Labour members has Keir Starmer winning outright for the first time.  

Starmer has significantly extended his lead in each of the three YouGov polls to date, but the only other poll carried out suggested a narrow victory for Rebecca Long-Bailey.  The Survation poll, carried out last month, took its findings from a much larger sample than YouGov.  It found that Long-Bailey would have a very slender advantage in the final round.  Survation are not mugs, they correctly predicted a Leave vote in 2016 when most pollsters (including YouGov) had Remain winning.  They also correctly predicted the Scottish independence referendum and all three of the last general elections.

This is how all four leadership polls stack up.

First round

YouGov (20-25 Feb)       YouGov (13-15 Jan)        Survation (8-13 Jan)        YouGov (21-31 Dec)

Sample: 1,323                Sample: 1,005                Sample: 3,835                 Sample: 1,059

Starmer 53%                 Starmer 46%                Long-Bailey 42%            Starmer 36%

Long-Bailey 31%           Long-Bailey 32%           Starmer 37%                  Long-Bailey 23%

Nandy 16%                    Phillips 11%                  Phillips 9%                     Phillips 12%

                                       Nandy 7%                      Nandy 7%                       Thornberry 7%

                                       Thornberry 3%              Thornberry 1%                Nandy 6%

Final round run-off

Note:  There would not be a run-off if Starmer received more than 50% in the first round, but as 53% is within the margin of error YouGov has included second preference findings

Starmer 66%                  Starmer 63%               Long-Bailey 51%              Starmer 61%

Long-Bailey 34%             Long-Bailey 37%          Starmer 49%                   Long-Bailey 39%