Friday, 21 July 2023

BY-ELECTIONS 20.07.23


The comprehensive Tory disaster that was widely anticipated on Super Thursday did not materialise thanks to a surprise result in the one seat that, on paper, they were most likely to lose.  A backlash against Khan's despicable ULEZ expansion saved them in Uxbridge, albeit with a reduced majority - down from 7,210 in 2019 to just 495.  Despite the backlash, Labour still piled on almost six percentage points.  Everyone else lost their deposit.

In the other two parliamentary elections, the Conservatives suffered crushing defeats.  In North Yorkshire they lost a seat they had held since its inception in 2010, with Labour overturning a 2019 majority of 20,137.  Their 25-year-old candidate comfortable surged past his Tory opponent with a 4,151 majority of his own, instantly replacing Nadia Whittome as the new Baby of the House.  The third placed Green Party candidate was the only other to save his deposit.

In Somerset the Lib Dems ploughed resources into a seat they had previously held between 1997 and 2015.  Since then the Tories had created a solid majority which stood at 19,213 in 2019.  On Thursday the Lib Dems decimated the Conservative lead and returned to Somerton and Frome with an 11,008 majority.  Again, the Green Party saved their deposit in third place.

Turnout was predictably low in all three seats: 44.8% in Selby, 44.2% in Somerton and 46.2% in Uxbridge.

Selby & Ainsty

Keir Mather (Lab) 16,456 (46.0%) +21.4%
Claire Holmes (Con) 12,295 (34.3%) -26.0%
Arnold Warneken (Grn) 1,838 (5.1%) +1.9%
Mike Jordan (Yrks) 1,503 (4.2%) +0.8%
Dave Kent (RefUK) 1,332 (3.7%) New
Matt Walker (LDem) 1,188 (3.3%) -5.3%
Nick Palmer (Ind) 342 (1.0%) New
John Waterstone (SDP) 314 (0.9%) New
Sir Archibald Stanton (Loon) 172 (0.5%) New
Guy Phoenix (Herit) 162 (0.5%) New
Andrew Gray (Ind) 99 (0.3%) New
Tyler Wilson-Kerr (Ind) 67 (0.2%) New
Luke Wellock (Clim) 39 (0.1%) New

Lab GAIN from Con

Somerton & Frome

Sarah Dyke (LDem) 21,187 (54.6%) +28.4%
Faye Purbrick (Con) 10,179 (26.2%) -29.6%
Martin Dimery (Grn) 3,944 (10.2%) +5.1%
Bruce Evans (RefUK) 1,303 (3.4%) New
Neil Guild (Lab) 1,009 (2.6%) -10.3%
Rosie Mitchell (Ind) 635 (1.6%) New
Peter Richardson (UKIP) 275 (0.7%) New
Lorna Corke (CPA) 256 (0.7%) New

LDem GAIN from Con

Uxbridge & South Ruislip

Steve Tuckwell (Con) 13,965 (45.2%) -7.5%
Danny Beales (Lab) 13,470 (43.6%) +5.9%
Sarah Green (Grn) 893(2.9%) +0.6%
Laurence Fox (Rclm) 714 (2.3%) New
Blaise Baquiche (LDem) 526 (1.7%) -4.6%
Steve Gardner (SDP) 248 (0.8%) New
Kingsley Hamilton Anti-Ulez (Ind) 208 (0.7%) New
Count Binface (Bin) 190 (0.6%) +0.5%
No-Ulez Leo Phaure (Ind) 186 (0.6%) New
Richard Hewison (Rejoin) 105 (0.3%) New
Piers Corbyn (LLL) 101 (0.3%) New
Cameron Bell (Ind) 91 (0.3%) New
Enomfon Ntefon (CPA) 78 (0.3%) New
Rebecca Jane (UKIP) 61 (0.2%) -0.4%
Ed Gemmell (Clim) 49 (0.2%) New
Howling Laud Hope (Loon) 32 (0.1%) -0.2%
77 Joseph (Ind) 8 (0.1%<) New

Con HOLD

There were also three council by-elections on Thursday, one each in West Wales, Swindon and Worcester.  The Lib Dems narrowly held off a Plaid surge in Ceredigion and Labour scored an easy hold in Worcester.  In Swindon there was an intriguing result as the Conservatives gained a seat from Labour.

Llanfarian, Ceredigion County Council

LDem: 298 (48.2%) -19.8%
Plaid: 290 (46.9%) +15.0%
Con: 30 (4.9%) New

LDem HOLD

St Margaret & South Marston, Swindon Borough Council

Con: 1,143 (50.6%) +2.1%
Lab: 1,118 (49.4%) -2.1%

Con GAIN from Lab

Nunnery, Worcester City Council

Lab: 1,048 (59.7%) +11.9%
Con: 518 (29.5%) -2.8%
LDem: 102 (5.8%) -0.5%
Ind: 88 (5.0%) -0.1%

Lab HOLD

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour
Con = Conservative
Grn = Green
Yrks = Yorkshire
RefUK = ReformUK
LDem = Liberal Democrat
SDP = Social Democratic Party
Loon = Monster Raving Loony
Clim = Climate
Herit = Heritage
UKIP = United Kingdom Independence Party
CPA = Christian Peoples Alliance
Rclm = Reclaim
Bin = Binface
Rejoin = Rejoin EU
LLL = Let London Live
Plaid = Plaid Cymru
Ind = Independent

No comments:

Post a Comment