Friday, 16 February 2024

BY-ELECTIONS 15.02.24


Labour have struck a double blow to Rishi Sunak with two huge Westminster gains in Thursday's two big by-elections.  In the Gloucestershire seat of Kingswood, Labour required an 11.4 per cent swing and achieved 16.4 per cent.  In Northamptonshire the result was even more impressive.  For victory in Wellingborough, the party required at least 17.9 per cent and they smashed it with a whopping 28.5 per cent.  Election guru Professor John Curtice says the latter was the second biggest swing from Tory to Labour since the Second World War and says the results show the government is in 'deep, deep electoral trouble'.  Keir Starmer 'still looks on course to be Britain's next Prime Minister', he added.

As the Tory vote plummeted, Labour were not the only beneficiaries.  Reform UK came from nowhere in both seats to easily hold onto their deposits.  The Lib Dems lost both of theirs.

The two Labour victories may be short-lived - boundary changes mean both constituencies will disappear at the next election - but even so, these results are a devastating reminder that a Labour government is almost certainly on the way.

Kingswood Parliamentary By-Election

Damien Egan (Lab) 11,176 (44.9%) +11.5%
Sam Bromiley (Con) 8,675 (34.5%) -21.7%
Rupert Lowe (RefUK) 2,578 (10.4%) New
Lorraine Francis (Grn) 1,450 (5.8%) +3.4%
Andrew Brown (LDem) 861 (3.5%) -3.5%
Nicholas Wood (UKIP) 129 (0.5%) New

Lab GAIN from Con

Wellingborough Parliamentary By-Election

Gen Kitchen (Lab) 13,844 (45.9%) +19.4%
Helen Harrison (Con) 7,408 (24.6%) -37.6%
Ben Habib (RefUK) 3,919 (13.0%) New
Ana Gunn (LDem) 1,422 (4.7%) -3.2%
Marion Turner-Hawes (Ind) 1,115 (3.7%) New
Will Morris (Grn) 1,020 (3.4%) -0.1%
Kev Watts (Ind) 533 (1.8%) New
Alex Merola (BritF) 477 (1.6%) New
Nick the Flying Brick (Loon) 217 (0.7%) New
Andre Pyne-Bailey (Ind) 172 (0.6%) New
Ankit Love Jknpp Jay Mala Post-Mortem (Ind) 18 (0.1%) New

Lab GAIN from Con

There were also five council by-elections on Thursday and proceedings largely belonged to the Lib Dems with two strong holds and a gain from Labour.  The Tory vote was down in the three elections it contested, with Labour having mixed results, albeit they gained an independent seat in south Wales.

Tring West & Rural, Dacorum Borough Council

LDem: 899 (62.7%) +12.9%
Con: 303 (21.1%) -3.0%
Grn: 122 (8.5%) -9.6%
Lab: 109 (7.6%) -0.3%

LDem HOLD

Four Marks & Medstead, East Hampshire District Council

LDem: 1,212 (62.2%) +18.9%
Con: 736 (37.8%) -2.3%

LDem HOLD

Avenue, Hull City Council

LDem: 1,186 (45.7%) +4.3%
Lab: 1,029 (39.7%) -8.4%
Grn: 198 (7.6%) n/c
Ind: 139 (5.3%) New
Con: 43 (1.7%) -1.3%

LDem GAIN from Lab

Briton Ferry East, Neath Port Talbot Council

Lab: 287 (52.4%) +8.0%
Ind: 234 (42.7%) -1.9%
Grn: 27 (4.9%) New

Lab GAIN from Ind

Rhos, Neath Port Talbot Council

Ind: 494 (52.1%) New
Plaid: 242 (25.5%) -29.1%
Lab: 137 (14.5%) -30.9%
LDem: 60 (6.3%) New
Grn: 15 (1.6%) New

Ind GAIN from Plaid

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour
Con = Conservative
RefUK = Reform UK
Grn = Green
LDem = Liberal Democrat
UKIP = United Kingdom Independence Party
BritF = Britain First
Loon = Monster Raving Loony
Plaid = Plaid Cymru
Ind = Independent

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