REFORM SURPRISE FOR BASTANI

The dullest man on the left was in the Tory stronghold of Chichester this week for his communist media outlet Novara Media.  Aaron Bastani was voxpopping residents in the Sussex town and asking them various questions about the looming election.  After speaking to various older residents who voiced a variety of opinions, Bastani appears to be dumbfounded when he speaks to some younger people who all give Reform UK the thumbs up.

Two lads who appear to be unknown to each other both express support for Reform.  One of them vents about getting 'rid of Rishi Sunak', while the other lad - who is mixed race - refers to the PM as 'a mug'.  Bastani is particularly intrigued by the latter, given his racial background (the left, as ever, fascinated by race).  He says that Reform would give 'actual English citizens a voice in what happens in this country'.  Bastani then speaks to two young girls, one of which says 'everyone around [Chichester] is very into it [Reform UK]'.  She puts the apparent fervour down to TikTok videos, which have featured teens from other areas talking up Reform.

Watch the clip below.

In the full 22 minute video on YouTube, Bastani uncovers support for the Lib Dems, Tories and Reform UK - not so much for Labour in this seat.  A Scottish couple who said they had always voted Conservative, said they were both thinking about voting for Reform.  Another lifelong Tory said he was so fed up that he was not going to bother voting at all.  An old lefty expressed delusion with our entire system of democracy and said he wasn't voting either.

During the remainder of the campaign we'll be lending our predictions for various seats and where better to begin than Chichester itself...

The constituency is so old that it predates the creation of both Great Britain and the United Kingdom by several hundred years, having first been established in 1295.  The Conservatives have held the seat for the entire 20th and 21st centuries, aside from 1923 when it was briefly gained by the Liberals, but held for just ten months.  Prior to that the seat had been represented by a Conservative MP since 1837.

It's an impressive record and Gillian Keegan goes into this election defending a 21,490 majority.  The Tory majority has decreased over the last two elections, from a peak in 2015 of 24,413.  We expect it to crumble at this forthcoming election and the seat will change hands.  The Lib Dems, who pushed Labour into third in 2019, appear to be the main challengers.  Reform are starting from scratch, having not fielded a candidate here previously.

There are six candidates in Chichester this time around, as follows.

Jess Brown-Fuller (LDem)

Tom Collinge (Lab)

Teresa De Santis (Ref UK)

Andrew Emerson (Ind)

Gillian Keegan (Con)

Tim Young (Grn)

BTLP seat prediction: LDem GAIN from Con