EXIT POLL

It has just gone 22:00 on polling day and the exit poll has been released...

If this is to prove fairly accurate there are a few surprises here.

The Tories have outperformed expectations and as such the Labour landslide is not as devastating as previously thought.  If Reform do pick up more than ten seats that is an astonishing result.  Finally, the SNP reduced to ten seats?  A crushing blow for separatism!

FULL LIST OF BTLP FORECASTS

We did it!  We surpassed 50 seat predictions before 22:00.  Here is the full list, including our prediction from a while back about Jeremy Corbyn dislodging Labour in Islington North.  We stand by it!

Throughout the night we will update this list with the actual seat winners.  Will we be Mystic Mega accurate or staggeringly hopeless?

Aberafan Maesteg: Lab WIN (new seat) - Lab WIN (new seat) ✔

Airdrie & Shotts: Lab GAIN from SNP  - Lab GAIN from SNP ✔

Ashfield: RefUK GAIN from Con - RefUK GAIN from Con ✔

Ashton-under-Lyne: Lab HOLD - Lab HOLD ✔

Banbury: Lab GAIN from Con  - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Basildon & Billericay: Lab GAIN from Con - Con HOLD ✘

Boston & Skegness: RefUK GAIN from Con - RefUK GAIN from Con ✔

Braintree: Con HOLD - Con HOLD  ✔

Bristol Central: Lab WIN (new seat) - Grn WIN (new seat) ✘

Castle Point: RefUK GAIN from Con -  - Con HOLD ✘

Chichester: LDem GAIN from Con - LDem GAIN from Con ✔

Chingford & Woodford Green: Lab GAIN from Con - Con HOLD ✘

Clacton: RefUK GAIN from Con - RefUK GAIN from Con ✔

Derby North: Lab GAIN from Con

Doncaster Central: Lab HOLD

Doncaster North: Lab HOLD - Lab HOLD ✔

Dumfries & Galloway: Con HOLD - Con HOLD ✔

Edinburgh South West: SNP HOLD

Glasgow North East: Lab GAIN from SNP  - Lab GAIN from SNP ✔

Godalming & Ash: LDem WIN (new seat) - Con WIN (new seat) ✘

Great Yarmouth: Lab GAIN from Con - RefUK GAIN from Con ✘

Fareham & Waterlooville: Con WIN (new seat) - Con WIN (new seat) ✔

Hartlepool: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Islington North: Ind GAIN from Lab - Ind GAIN from Lab ✔

Leeds West & Pudsey: Lab WIN (new seat) - Lab WIN  ✔

Leicester East: Lab HOLD  - Con GAIN from Lab ✘

Livingston: SNP HOLD  - Lab GAIN from SNP ✘

Louth & Horncastle: Con HOLD - Con HOLD ✔

North Cornwall: LDem GAIN from Con  - LDem GAIN from Con ✔

North East Fife: LDem HOLD - LDem HOLD ✔

North West Essex: Con WIN (new seat) - Con WIN (new seat) ✔

North West Leicestershire: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Portsmouth North: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Richmond & Northallerton: Con WIN (new seat) - Con WIN (new seat) ✔

Rochdale: WPB HOLD - Lab GAIN from WPB ✘

Rushcliffe: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Skipton & Ripon: Con HOLD - Con HOLD ✔

South Ribble: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

South West Devon: Lab GAIN from Con

South West Norfolk: Con HOLD - Lab GAIN from Con ✘

Stalybridge & Hyde: Lab HOLD

Telford: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Tonbridge: Con WIN (new seat) - Con WIN (new seat) ✔

Tottenham: Lab HOLD - Lab HOLD ✔

Truro & Falmouth: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Vale of Glamorgan: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine: SNP GAIN from Con - Con HOLD ✘

West Dorset: LDem GAIN from Con - LDem GAIN from Con ✔

Witney: LDem GAIN from Con - LDem GAIN from Con ✔

Wrexham: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Ynys Môn: Plaid GAIN from Con - Plaid GAIN from Con ✔

A FINAL SLATE OF SEAT FORECASTS

We are aiming to get at least 50 seat predictions in before polling closes at 22:00.  Here are some more we've looked at today...

Ashfield

One to watch and tricky to call.  Ex-Labour councillor Lee Anderson was elected a Tory MP in 2019 and has since defected to Reform UK.  Ashfield is historically a Labour seat, but they were pushed into third in 2019 by a local independent who is standing again, despite awaiting trial on multiple criminal charges.  A lot of votes could be up for grabs there and if Anderson can take votes from both Labour and the Tories, he could take this seat.

BTLP seat prediction: RefUK GAIN from Con

Ashton-under-Lyne

Considering she is deputy leader (with aspirations to be PM we strongly suspect), Angela Rayner is in possession of a relatively small majority of 4,263.  However, because her main challenger in 2019 was the Conservative candidate, she is going to be safe, regardless of George Galloway's threats to oust her with his Workers Party of Britain candidate.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab HOLD

Basildon & Billericay

A relatively new seat, created in 2010 and held by the Conservatives since.  Tory chair Richard Holden will try and defend a 20,412 majority over Labour, but in previous elections it was much closer.  There is strong Brexit support here and Holden could potentially fall to Reform.  It's going to be close and Labour could sneak it.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Boston & Skegness

A blue seat since its creation in 1997, the Tory incumbent will attempt to defend his 25,621 majority against major challenges from Labour and Reform.  Richard Tice is standing for Reform and will desperately want to join Farage in the Commons.  This will be a tight three-way, but we see Tice narrowly victorious.

BTLP seat prediction: RefUK GAIN from Con

Braintree

The Home Secretary's seat has been blue since 2005 and Mr Cleverly will be defending a 24,673 majority.  Labour will run him close here, but not close enough in our opinion.

BTLP seat prediction: Con HOLD

Castle Point

This Essex seat is traditionally blue and the incumbent is defending a lofty 26,634 majority.  The challengers here could be Reform and there is a healthy history of Euroscepticism.  Reform will win a handful of seats at best today, but we believe this will be one of them.

BTLP seat prediction: RefUK GAIN from Con

Chingford & Woodford Green

Iain Duncan Smith has held this London seat since 1992, but from 2010 onwards his majority has shrunk at each successive election.  He is now in ultra marginal territory with just a 1,262 advantage over Labour in 2019.  One wonders why he didn't stand down at this election and maintain some dignity.  Is he hoping for another punt at the Tory leadership?  He's toast.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Derby North

This seat changed has hands between incumbent Amanda Solloway and Labour crank Chris Williamson several times.  Solloway is defending a marginal 2,540 majority.  There's no Williamson this time, so the Labour victor will be a new MP.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Doncaster Central

A Labour seat since its creation in 1983, Doncaster Central is vacated by the retiring Rosie Winterton.  She clung on in 2019 with a dramatically reduced majority of 2,278 and a successful governing party would be looking to take this seat.  However, the Tories are non-starters and the main challenger will be Reform UK.  They could spring an upset here and it will be close.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab HOLD

Fareham & Waterlooville

A new seat comprising mostly of the old Fareham constituency, this was a seat that always voted Conservative.  Suella Braverman has been the MP since 2015 and would be a prized scalp for the left here.  Her majority in 2019 was an impressive 26,086 and it's probably going to be too much for either Labour or the Lib Dems to overcome.

BTLP seat prediction: Con WIN (new seat)

Great Yarmouth

An ancient constituency that has been represented by Tory Brandon Lewis since 2010.  Despite a 17,663 majority, Lewis didn't fancy his chances this time and stood down.  Reform will poll well here, but we've got this turning red.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Hartlepool

Before things turned bad for Boris, there was the Hartlepool by-election, which returned a Tory victor for the first time in its history.  That victory will be short-lived as this seat is reverting to red.  The Conservatives could be pushed into third by Reform here.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Leicester East

This seat has produced some toxic MPs from Labour, namely Keith Vaz and Claudia Webbe, who are both standing as independents.  Webbe's majority in 2019 was 6,019, but the second placed Tories are no challengers here.  Labour hold all day long.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab HOLD

Louth & Horncastle

Held by the Conservatives since its creation in 1997, incumbent Victoria Adkins has a whopping majority of 28,868.  For Labour to win it would present a huge swing and they'll probably come close.  Reform will get a big vote here too, potentially creating a three-way contest.

BTLP seat prediction: Con HOLD

North West Essex

If the (not at all racist) left were to see Braverman out, they would be punching the air if they got Kemi Badenoch too.  This is a new seat formed mostly from Badenoch's Saffron Walden constituency from which she obtained an impressive 27,594 majority in 2019.  That seat had been held by a Tory since 1929.  Labour and the Lib Dems will cancel each other out here, leaving Badenoch to hold on.

BTLP seat prediction: Con WIN (new seat)

North West Leicestershire

Big pharma foe Andrew Bridgen has held this seat for the Conservatives since 2010, before which it had spent the entire Blair/Brown years with a Labour MP.  Bridgen's majority in 2019 was 20,400 and his successor will be hoping to hold for the Tories (Bridgen is standing as an independent).  Two important factors here are how many Tory voters will jump ship for Bridgen and how many Lab-Con voters will jump ship for Reform?  This could be a potential three-way tussle between the Tories, Reform and Labour.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Rochdale

All the big three parties have held Rochdale at some point or another, but it was George Galloway who was victorious in the by-election earlier this year with a 5,697 majority.  He and his Workers Party of Britain have been the focus of a sustained smear campaign by Labour and their allies during this campaign and on that basis alone we hope he holds.  Labour were some way off in the by-election, but by-elections are not the same as general elections.  Still, we fancy Gaza Galloway to cling on by the skin of his teeth.

BTLP seat prediction: WPB HOLD

Rushcliffe

Ken Clarke gained this seat from Labour in 1970 and may have held it beyond 2019 were it not for his Brexit hissy fit.  His successor will be defending a 7,643 majority and is a likely casualty to the red wave.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Skipton & Ripon

This Yorkshire seat has been blue since its creation in 1983 and the incumbent believes he can win again.  Julian Smith has a 23,694 majority over Labour, but all the talk here is about Reform.  They are debutants, but UKIP have polled very strongly in the past.  They would need to take a lot of votes off both Labour and the Tories.  Very tricky to call, but the Tories may cling on by a thread.

BTLP seat prediction: Con HOLD

South Ribble

This Lancastrian seat has been held by the Conservatives since 2010 and the incumbent fancies her chances with a 11,199 majority.  Reform will poll strongly here, but it will be Labour who enjoy the spoils.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

South West Devon

Gary Streeter was the Tory MP for this seat since 1997, but he clearly didn't fancy his chances this time round - despite a 21,430 majority.  We see this one turning red for the first time ever.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

South West Norfolk

It's a crowded ballot paper for this seat and it's little wonder.  Our short-lived premier Liz Truss is fighting on for her place on the Westminster gravy train, despite her recent embrace of actual real conservatism.  Still carrying a Tory flag, she will try and defend an otherwise healthy 26,195 majority.  It's a big swing for Labour to pull this off and the presence of Reform could be a deciding factor.  We predict a paper thin hold for Liz.

BTLP seat prediction: Con HOLD

Telford

Telford turned blue in 2015 and its MP built it from a marginal to a 10,941 majority in 2019.  Reform will poll well here and could push the Tories into third.  This seat is reverting to red.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

West Dorset

It will come as no surprise to find that this affluent-sounding seat has been blue since 1885.  Strangely, there's no Reform candidate here, which may help the incumbent fight off his Lib Dem challenger.  Chris Loder is defending a 14,106 majority, but we don't foresee success for him.

BTLP seat prediction: LDem GAIN from Con

CELTIC CALCULATIONS

Polling day is here and we'll be churning out some more quickfire seat predictions before polls close.  Here we'll take a look at some of the intriguing contests taking place in the Celtic nations of Great Britain.  We won't be delving into Northern Ireland, as those seats will not have a direct bearing on who enters government tomorrow.

Here we go...

SCOTLAND

Airdrie & Shotts

Narrowly held by the SNP since 2015, this marginal was the scene of a by-election in 2021 in which the young candidate (a former general secretary of Muslim Friends of Labour) emerged with a 1,757 majority.  It's too narrow a margin for a party in decline and Labour will take this one.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from SNP

Dumfries & Galloway

Since its creation in 2005, this seat has been held by Labour (2005-15), the SNP (2015) and since 2017 by the Conservatives.  Its MP Alister Jack is one of many Tories who jumped ship at this election, sensing the inevitable.  However, a Tory loss is not set in stone.  They have a small majority of 1,805, but that is against the declining SNP.  Labour were a distant third in 2019, but could potentially surge through the pair of them.  Debutants Reform could be king makers here.  Tough one to call...

BTLP seat prediction: Con HOLD

Edinburgh South West

SNP bigwig Joanna Cherry won Alistair Darling's old seat from Labour in 2015 and is now defending an 11,982 majority.  The Tories have finished runners-up here since 2017, leaving Labour with a mountain to climb to dislodge Cherry.  Cherry will hang on, probably.

BTLP seat prediction: SNP HOLD

Glasgow North East

Glasgow used to be a Labour stronghold, but that all changed in 2015 when the SNP swept the board and won every seat.  Since then, only Glasgow North East has changed hands - Labour regained it in 2017 and then lost it again in 2019.  The SNP will be defending a marginal 2,548 majority this time round and given all their recent woes this has Labour gain written all over it.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from SNP

Livingston

This is going to be a tussle between Labour and the incumbent SNP.  Hannah Bardell is defending a 13,435 majority, but the question is how many of her voters will abandon the SNP and revert back to the party that held this seat prior to 2015?  The result is likely to be very tight here.

BTLP seat prediction: SNP HOLD

North East Fife

The Lib Dems have held this seat at every election since 1987, with the exception of 2015 and 2017, the latter of which the SNP held it with a majority of just two votes.  The Lib Dems are defending a majority of 1,316 today, but with the SNP in decline and no other clear challengers - they're clear favourites.

BTLP seat prediction: LDem HOLD

West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine

This is an intriguing contest between two struggling parties.  The SNP gained this seat in 2015 from the Lib Dems, but lost it to the Tories in 2017.  The Tory incumbent defends a tiny majority of just 843 votes going into this election and it's difficult to see the second placed SNP not retaking it.

BTLP seat prediction: SNP GAIN from Con

WALES

Vale of Glamorgan

This seat has repeatedly changed hands over the years between Tories and Labour, albeit the Conservatives have held it longer overall.  Tory incumbent Alun Cairns has held the seat since 2010 and thinks he can win again, despite a relatively small majority of 3,562.  The Reform vote could be decisive here, tipping the balance either way.  Despite discontent with Drakeford and Gething, Labour will just about take this.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Wrexham

This was a surprise gain for the Conservatives in 2019 and they are defending a marginal 2,131 majority.  The incumbent clearly thinks she has a chance this time, but she is almost certainly a goner.  Voter discontent with Labour in Cardiff won't save her.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Ynys Môn

Anglesey (its English name) has gone through cycles over the decades - Labour (1951-79), Conservative (1979-87), Plaid (1987-2001), Labour (2001-2019), Conservative (2019).  It was a tight three-way contest in 2019, with the Tories victorious on a narrow 1,968 majority.  This time around it will be a two-horse race between Labour and Plaid.  Very difficult to call this one, but we feel that Reform are going to take votes from Labour and give Plaid Cymru the win.

BTLP seat prediction: Plaid GAIN from Con

CORNWALL

North Cornwall

Scott Mann has held this seat for the Tories since 2015, winning it from the Lib Dems.  Mann is defending a 14,752 majority over the Lib Dems and this could be a tight contest.  It will be interesting to see what bearing Reform's debut presence has on the outcome, but the result will likely be a Tory defeat.

BTLP seat prediction: LDem GAIN from Con

Truro & Falmouth

This constituency was drawn up in 2010 and has returned a Conservative MP at every subsequent election, peaking with a 14,000 majority in 2015.  The Tory majority being defended this time is 4,561 and second placed Labour will be looking to overturn it.  They will.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

THE WEFMINSTER SEVEN

Polling day is almost upon us now and we're trying to squeeze in as many seat predictions as we can.  We posted the above meme to Facebook earlier today, leaving some wondering if it was possible to get rid of any of these committed globalists at all.  We've already covered Ed Miliband's seat, so here we will do a very quick rundown of the other seven featured in the meme.

Leeds West & Pudsey

Technically a new seat, Labour's Rachel Reeves will be hoping to build on the 10,564 majority she received in her previous constituency of Leeds West.  With only the Conservative candidate anywhere near her in 2019, she is likely to be returned fairly easily.  Reform will poll well here and could push the crumbling Tories into third place.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab WIN (new seat)

Stalybridge & Hyde

Held by Labour since 1945, this seat became a marginal in 2019 as Labour's Jonathan Reynolds clung on with a 2,946 majority.  The Tories were the only challengers in 2019, but Reform could push them into third place on Thursday.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab HOLD

Godalming & Ash

This is a new constituency resulting from major boundary changes.  Jeremy Hunt has opted to contest this seat, succeeding the abolished South West Surrey constituency, from which he received an 8,817 majority in 2019.  The Lib Dems were resurgent in that election and while we believe the PM is safe in Richmond, the Chancellor is toast in Godalming.

BTLP seat prediction: LDem WIN (new seat)

Tottenham

A red seat since 1964, Dave Lammy defending a 30,175 majority, no significant challengers to speak of - hands down easy hold for the soon-to-be Foreign Secretary.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab HOLD

Aberafan Maesteg

Another new seat largely formed from Stephen Kinnock's old seat of Aberavon, which he had held since 2015 and signed off with a 10,490 majority in 2019.  While Labour won't poll quite as strongly in Wales as it will in England, the Kinnock dynasty is set to continue in Westminster with no significant challengers to him.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab WIN (new seat)

Tonbridge

Previously known as Tonbridge & Malling, Bilderberg regular Tom Tugendhat obtained an impressive 26,941 majority in 2019.  The boundary changes slightly favour him, with Labour and the Lib Dems likely fighting it out for second place.  Tugendhat will be one of few Tories to save a spot on the WEFminster gravy train and he and his masters will be eyeing up the leadership position, if not now - for the future.

BTLP seat prediction: Con WIN (new seat)

Portsmouth North

Penny Mordaunt will defend a 15,780 majority here on Thursday, having held the seat since 2010 when she gained it from Labour.  This is going to be a tight race between Mordaunt and Labour, with the presence of newcomers Reform likely to decide the contest.  If they take votes from Labour, they could save Mordaunt, but it's unlikely to be enough.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Look out for more BTLP seat predictions on polling day.

NEVER LABOUR, NEVER GREEN

In decades past, a vote for the Green Party was often seen as a harmless protest vote.  Voters saw it as both rejecting the status quo, but doing their bit for the environment in the process.  That was back in the days when the Greens couldn't win and some of their policies were bordering on sensible.

Fast forward to the 21st century and the Greens are now a far left outfit with extremist policies, many of which do nothing for the environment and undermine our green and pleasant land.  They are very much like Labour, except they are straight up and honest about their ill intent.  They are advocating for abolishing our borders altogether at this election.  And as we see with the left as a whole, they are so blinded by ideology that they cannot perceive a conflict in simultaneously embracing both Islamists and the Alphabet People.

Satirical website The Upper Lip has produced a hilarious video mocking the Greens (see below), complete with smug middle class commentator.

The Greens have also now entered the House of Commons, with Caroline Lucas having been the MP for Brighton Pavilion since 2010.  They are also odds on favourites to win Bristol Central at this election, doubling their number of Westminster seats in the process (this would actually unseat the Brit-hating Labour incumbent Thangam Debbonaire, so not all bad!)

A Green victory in Bristol Central would be an impressive result, with Debbonaire defending an otherwise comfortable majority of 28,219.  She has been the MP for the seat's predecessor Bristol West since 2015, prior to which it spent ten years as a Lib Dem seat.  The boundary changes favour the Greens, who earlier this year won every available council in this newly formed constituency.  They are now the largest party on Bristol City Council and the city is fast becoming one of Britain's premier far left strongholds.

But can hideous lesbian midget Carla Denyer triumph over Debbonaire?  This is one of the most difficult seats to call, a very tight two-horse race in which the Greens have thrown everything at.  Will it be enough?  We are going to buck all polling and betting odds to suggest that Debbonaire will cling on here.  Six candidates are standing, including the awesome Kellie-Jay Keen for the Party of Women (that is, actual biological females, and not the make believe women that Labour and the Greens advocate for).

Robert Clarke (RefUK)

Nicholas Coombes (LDem)

Thangam Debbonaire (Lab)

Carla Denyer (Grn)

Kellie-Jay Keen (Wom)

Samuel Williams (Con)

BTLP seat prediction: Lab WIN (new seat)

RISHI'S RICHMOND BLUES?

Rishi will say farewell to Number Ten, but what of his constituency?

Two things are nailed on certainties in this election - the Tories will be hammered and Rishi Sunak will resign as party leader on Friday.  Sunak will rightly take the blame for his party's utter humiliation, but it was actually his predecessor Boris Johnson who bears much of the responsibility.  Johnson made it all too easy for the media to hang him out to dry following the shitshow of the scamdemic, during which he descended us towards a globalist Hell of nanny state absurdity.

After the all-too-brief intermission of Liz Truss, Sunak never looked like reversing the Tories' poll deficit.  He continued Johnson's lurch to the left of Labour, failed to stop the boats and was almost less inspiring than Keir Starmer himself.  On Friday he will be replaced by his dull opponent Starmer in one of the most absurd electoral turnarounds in history.  An 80 seat majority will not just be turned on its head, it will be ground into dust.

Rishi will leave Downing Street, but will he maintain his place on a Westminster gravy train that is small fry to Sunak?  Five years on the backbenches may turn out to be a distraction for one of the richest men in Britain and we strongly suspect he won't see it through.  That is, of course, were he to hold onto his seat...

Following a relatively minor boundary change, Richmond in North Yorkshire has been remodelled as Richmond and Northallerton for this election.  A mostly rural and affluent constituency, it is perhaps very apt that mega rich Rishi was parachuted in here to replace William Hague in 2015.  The Tories have held Richmond since 1910 and Sunak is defending a 27,210 majority from 2019, which is the biggest ever Tory majority in the seat's history.

Labour have been a distant second here in the last two elections and it is hard to see them mount a serious challenge.  Reform will be contesting this seat for the first time and will likely poll well, but are no threat to Sunak's majority.  Rich boy is likely to hold, but we expect him to stand down within two or three years when he tires of political play.

As one would expect for a sitting Prime Minister, the ballot paper in Richmond is a long one.  The usual jokers are there - Binface and the Loons - plus three independents, the Yorkshire Party and a somewhat odd appearance from George Galloway's Workers Party of Britain.  The workers' revolution is not likely to find too many roots in Richmond and Northallerton.

Jason Barnett (Ind)

Count Binface (Bin)

Daniel Callaghan (LDem)

Angie Campion (Ind)

Louise Dickens (WPB)

Kevin Foster (Grn)

Rio Goldhammer (Yrks)

Niko Omilana (Ind)

Brian Richmond (Ind)

Sir Archibald Stanton (Loon)

Rishi Sunak (Con)

Lee Taylor (RefUK)

Tom Wilson (Lab)

BTLP seat prediction: Con WIN (new seat)

CAN FARAGE WIN CLACTON?

Farage made the most of the milkshake incident during his campaign launch

Can he?  Well, put it this way - if Nigel Farage does not enter the House of Commons at this election, he may never get a better chance.  Reform UK simply must deliver at this election, and that means not just gathering millions of votes and dozens of second places - they must actually win seats.  Their newly reappointed leader must also be one of Reform's victors.

It's a big ask in our two party system for a small party to break through.  The Greens have been going for decades and are still only expected to win one, maybe two seats at this election.  Reform UK have only been around since 2019 and are yet to win a UK Parliamentary election.  Polling suggests they could win a handful of seats on Thursday and anything upward of five in our view would be absolutely stunning.  They could then spend the next five years going full tilt at every by-election, building momentum to quite possibly replace the Conservatives at the next election.  Some believe they could replace them at this election...

Clacton has significant history with Eurosceptic parties, having elected a UKIP member in the 2014 by-election.  Douglas Carswell held the seat for UKIP in the 2015 general election, but his relationship with then leader Farage soured and he had left the party by 2017.  UKIP lost the seat in that election and it was the last time a Leave party contested Clacton, until now.

With no UKIP or Brexit Party candidate in 2019, the Tories extended their lead over Labour and will go into this election defending a very healthy 24,702 majority.  Former actor Giles Watling has been the MP since 2017 and is standing again this time.

Labour would have a sniff here were it not for the Farage circus, but this is a two-horse race and Reform will go head to head with the Tories.  Nine candidates are on the ballot.  Will UKIP and the Heritage Party take enough votes from Reform to save the Conservatives?  Doubtful.

Matthew Bensilum (LDem)

Nigel Farage (RefUK)

Craig Jamieson (Clim)

Tony Mack (Ind)

Natasha Osben (Grn)

Jovan Owusu-Nepaul (Lab)

Tasos Papanastasiou (Herit)

Andrew Pemberton (UKIP)

Giles Watling (Con)

BTLP seat prediction: RefUK GAIN from Con

CLARKSON: ANYONE, BUT LABOUR

Jeremy Clarkson hit out at Labour last month in his column for The Sun, in which he declared them lacking a 'single redeeming feature'.  In his article he explored his conundrum as to who he should vote for in the looming election.  He dedicated a sentence or two to the Lib Dems, Greens and Reform, gave very little positive feedback on the Tories, before laying into Labour and failing to endorse any of them.

Clarkson appeals to certain demographics in Britain, one of which is certainly those of us who the left racially abuse as 'gammon'.  Middle class conservatives are at ease with Clarkson, his affluent lifestyle and politically incorrect views are a comfort to them in a world where the left police speech.  We at BTLP have always regarded him and his Top Gear chums as a safety valve for the Beeb, a vehicle for which they can still draw in conservative-minded viewers and claim to be 'balanced'.

Clarkson himself tries to maintain a balance when it comes to his political views.  More often than not, he has promoted conservative and libertarian values, but he also continues to defend a totalitarian European Union and even endorsed Keir Starmer's Labour back in 2020.  His latest article turns that endorsement on its head, while at the same time he joins the Labour leader in his favoured spot seated on top of the fence.  The full article is reprinted below.

Like almost every normal person in Britain, I’m struggling to work out which way I should vote in the forthcoming election.

Here in the Cotswolds, many houses are festooned with Lib Dem posters, and I can see why.

They’ve promised to take us back into Europe and, as a Remainer, I can see the appeal of that.

But then we have Reform, and the fact is that when Lee Anderson opens his mouth on TikTok, I often find myself nodding quietly and thinking: "Well, he does have a point."

So what about the Greens?  Sure, they have some absolutely mad policies on most things, but they do say, and this appeals to me, that they would like cleaner rivers and better soil.

The Tories?  Tricky one this.  For the past few years they’ve been pretty much useless.

Cowed by a fear of social media into a state of near paralysis, they’ve steered us into a world where the trains, the roads, the airports, the NHS and border control just don’t work any more.

And Mr Rishi leaving the D-Day events in France was incomprehensible.

But their heart’s in the right place on taxes and economic stability, and that’s important.

So now we arrive at the Labour Party, and I’m sorry, but I cannot find a single redeeming feature.

In the entire campaign so far, not a single candidate has said one word that I agree with.

They want open borders, zero growth and everyone living in a bucket of shame because their great great grandad once bought a hairbrush that had possibly been made by slaves.

Their manifesto contains just 87 words on farming. Which, when translated into English basically say: “We hate you, you meat-eating rural halfwits.”

It’s even been suggested that inheritance tax will have to be paid on farm land.

Which means that in about 20 years’ time, there will be no farm land.

And therefore no food, apart from in all the town-centre, nuclear-free, South African peace stores, where you will be able to buy sustainable tofu.

I get, of course, that people are fed up with the Tories, but I’d rather vote for my dog than Sir Starmer’s merry bunch of ideological nincompoops.

Half of them don’t know what a woman is, and now it transpires Starmer himself can’t even define the working class.

He thinks it has something to do with people who work.  But King Charles works, you idiot.

Working class is a state of mind.  It’s a community spirit.  It has nothing to do with whether you work or not.

What I hate most of all about Labour, though, is that they believe that if you work hard all your life and make some savings to tide you over in your old age, those savings are theirs.

And that they should be given to people who haven’t worked at all.

Which is why, come polling day, I’m praying there’s a box on the ballot paper which says: "Anyone but Labour."

Clarkson's Diddly Squat Farm is located in the Oxfordshire constituency of Banbury (previously Witney).  As we are currently meting out our predictions for various constituencies this Thursday, it is perhaps an apt moment to lend our forecast for Banbury (and Witney).

The latest boundary review finds Clarkson's farm, south of the small Cotswold town of Chipping Norton, transferred from Witney to Banbury this time around.  Both constituencies are traditionally Tory seats.  Banbury has returned a Conservative MP since 1922, Witney since its creation in 1983, albeit the latter did have a Labour MP briefly when Tory MP Shaun Woodward crossed the floor to Labour in 1999.  The Tories took the seat back in 2001 with a candidate by the name of David Cameron...

The future PM rebuilt the Tory majority in Witney from an all-time low of 7,028 in 1997.  By 2015 he had more than quadrupled it to 25,155, but that was its peak.  The best it would get after that was 21,241 in 2017 and it currently stands at 15,177.

The Tory majority in Banbury also had to be rebuilt after 1997 and currently stands at 16,813.  Both sitting Tory MPs believe they can hold these seats, but can they?

It's a crowded field in Banbury with both the Greens and Climate Party standing, as well as Reform and the SDP (despite a supposed deal that they would not go head to head).  Banbury is very tricky to call as it looks set to be a tight three-way battle between the Tories, Lib-Dems and Labour.

Banbury candidates 2024

Liz Adams (LDem)

Arron Baker (Grn)

Cassi Bellingham (Ind)

Chris Nevile (Clim)

Victoria Prentis (Con)

Declan Soper (SDP)

Paul Topley (RefUK)

Sean Woodcock (Lab)

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Seven candidates are competing in Witney, including a rare outing for David Kurten's Heritage Party.  This will be a straight fight between the Tories and Lib Dems.

Witney candidates 2024

Robert Courts (Con)

David Cox (Herit)

Barry Ingleton  (Ind)

Richard Langridge (RefUK)

Charles Maynard (LDem)

Andrew Prosser (Grn)

Antonio Weiss (Lab)

BTLP seat prediction: LDem GAIN from Con

TOON TUESDAY #12

We continue the Starmer theme this week thanks to a foreboding effort from Steve Bright for The Sun newspaper.  We can certainly agree with his dark interpretation of what is about to come.  Take a deep breath everyone...