CELTIC CALCULATIONS

Polling day is here and we'll be churning out some more quickfire seat predictions before polls close.  Here we'll take a look at some of the intriguing contests taking place in the Celtic nations of Great Britain.  We won't be delving into Northern Ireland, as those seats will not have a direct bearing on who enters government tomorrow.

Here we go...

SCOTLAND

Airdrie & Shotts

Narrowly held by the SNP since 2015, this marginal was the scene of a by-election in 2021 in which the young candidate (a former general secretary of Muslim Friends of Labour) emerged with a 1,757 majority.  It's too narrow a margin for a party in decline and Labour will take this one.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from SNP

Dumfries & Galloway

Since its creation in 2005, this seat has been held by Labour (2005-15), the SNP (2015) and since 2017 by the Conservatives.  Its MP Alister Jack is one of many Tories who jumped ship at this election, sensing the inevitable.  However, a Tory loss is not set in stone.  They have a small majority of 1,805, but that is against the declining SNP.  Labour were a distant third in 2019, but could potentially surge through the pair of them.  Debutants Reform could be king makers here.  Tough one to call...

BTLP seat prediction: Con HOLD

Edinburgh South West

SNP bigwig Joanna Cherry won Alistair Darling's old seat from Labour in 2015 and is now defending an 11,982 majority.  The Tories have finished runners-up here since 2017, leaving Labour with a mountain to climb to dislodge Cherry.  Cherry will hang on, probably.

BTLP seat prediction: SNP HOLD

Glasgow North East

Glasgow used to be a Labour stronghold, but that all changed in 2015 when the SNP swept the board and won every seat.  Since then, only Glasgow North East has changed hands - Labour regained it in 2017 and then lost it again in 2019.  The SNP will be defending a marginal 2,548 majority this time round and given all their recent woes this has Labour gain written all over it.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from SNP

Livingston

This is going to be a tussle between Labour and the incumbent SNP.  Hannah Bardell is defending a 13,435 majority, but the question is how many of her voters will abandon the SNP and revert back to the party that held this seat prior to 2015?  The result is likely to be very tight here.

BTLP seat prediction: SNP HOLD

North East Fife

The Lib Dems have held this seat at every election since 1987, with the exception of 2015 and 2017, the latter of which the SNP held it with a majority of just two votes.  The Lib Dems are defending a majority of 1,316 today, but with the SNP in decline and no other clear challengers - they're clear favourites.

BTLP seat prediction: LDem HOLD

West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine

This is an intriguing contest between two struggling parties.  The SNP gained this seat in 2015 from the Lib Dems, but lost it to the Tories in 2017.  The Tory incumbent defends a tiny majority of just 843 votes going into this election and it's difficult to see the second placed SNP not retaking it.

BTLP seat prediction: SNP GAIN from Con

WALES

Vale of Glamorgan

This seat has repeatedly changed hands over the years between Tories and Labour, albeit the Conservatives have held it longer overall.  Tory incumbent Alun Cairns has held the seat since 2010 and thinks he can win again, despite a relatively small majority of 3,562.  The Reform vote could be decisive here, tipping the balance either way.  Despite discontent with Drakeford and Gething, Labour will just about take this.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Wrexham

This was a surprise gain for the Conservatives in 2019 and they are defending a marginal 2,131 majority.  The incumbent clearly thinks she has a chance this time, but she is almost certainly a goner.  Voter discontent with Labour in Cardiff won't save her.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Ynys Môn

Anglesey (its English name) has gone through cycles over the decades - Labour (1951-79), Conservative (1979-87), Plaid (1987-2001), Labour (2001-2019), Conservative (2019).  It was a tight three-way contest in 2019, with the Tories victorious on a narrow 1,968 majority.  This time around it will be a two-horse race between Labour and Plaid.  Very difficult to call this one, but we feel that Reform are going to take votes from Labour and give Plaid Cymru the win.

BTLP seat prediction: Plaid GAIN from Con

CORNWALL

North Cornwall

Scott Mann has held this seat for the Tories since 2015, winning it from the Lib Dems.  Mann is defending a 14,752 majority over the Lib Dems and this could be a tight contest.  It will be interesting to see what bearing Reform's debut presence has on the outcome, but the result will likely be a Tory defeat.

BTLP seat prediction: LDem GAIN from Con

Truro & Falmouth

This constituency was drawn up in 2010 and has returned a Conservative MP at every subsequent election, peaking with a 14,000 majority in 2015.  The Tory majority being defended this time is 4,561 and second placed Labour will be looking to overturn it.  They will.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con