OWN TRUMPET BLOWN

Prior to last week's election we made a series of seat forecasts numbering 51 in total.  The seats chosen were somewhat random, ranging from the glaringly obvious (Dave Lammy to hold Tottenham) to narrow marginals such as Chingford and Woodford Green.  With the Tory vote expected to crash, many seats became potential three-way contests drawing in a combination of parties.  The performance of Reform UK and the party's effect on the uniparty was viewed with particular interest.

A long standing prediction for Islington North was included in the list.  We predicted that Jeremy Corbyn would defeat Labour as an independent and we stood by it.  It was one of many outcomes we correctly predicted.

Overall, were we Mystic Mega accurate or staggeringly hopeless?

Aberafan Maesteg: Lab WIN (new seat) - Lab WIN (new seat) ✔

Airdrie & Shotts: Lab GAIN from SNP  - Lab GAIN from SNP ✔

Ashfield: RefUK GAIN from Con - RefUK GAIN from Con ✔

Ashton-under-Lyne: Lab HOLD - Lab HOLD ✔

Banbury: Lab GAIN from Con  - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Basildon & Billericay: Lab GAIN from Con - Con HOLD ✘

Boston & Skegness: RefUK GAIN from Con - RefUK GAIN from Con ✔

Braintree: Con HOLD - Con HOLD  ✔

Bristol Central: Lab WIN (new seat) - Grn WIN (new seat) ✘

Castle Point: RefUK GAIN from Con -  - Con HOLD ✘

Chichester: LDem GAIN from Con - LDem GAIN from Con ✔

Chingford & Woodford Green: Lab GAIN from Con - Con HOLD ✘

Clacton: RefUK GAIN from Con - RefUK GAIN from Con ✔

Derby North: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Doncaster Central: Lab HOLD - Lab HOLD ✔

Doncaster North: Lab HOLD - Lab HOLD ✔

Dumfries & Galloway: Con HOLD - Con HOLD ✔

Edinburgh South West: SNP HOLD - Lab GAIN from SNP ✘

Glasgow North East: Lab GAIN from SNP  - Lab GAIN from SNP ✔

Godalming & Ash: LDem WIN (new seat) - Con WIN (new seat) ✘

Great Yarmouth: Lab GAIN from Con - RefUK GAIN from Con ✘

Fareham & Waterlooville: Con WIN (new seat) - Con WIN (new seat) ✔

Hartlepool: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Islington North: Ind GAIN from Lab - Ind GAIN from Lab ✔

Leeds West & Pudsey: Lab WIN (new seat) - Lab WIN  ✔

Leicester East: Lab HOLD  - Con GAIN from Lab ✘

Livingston: SNP HOLD  - Lab GAIN from SNP ✘

Louth & Horncastle: Con HOLD - Con HOLD ✔

North Cornwall: LDem GAIN from Con  - LDem GAIN from Con ✔

North East Fife: LDem HOLD - LDem HOLD ✔

North West Essex: Con WIN (new seat) - Con WIN (new seat) ✔

North West Leicestershire: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Portsmouth North: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Richmond & Northallerton: Con WIN (new seat) - Con WIN (new seat) ✔

Rochdale: WPB HOLD - Lab GAIN from WPB ✘

Rushcliffe: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Skipton & Ripon: Con HOLD - Con HOLD ✔

South Ribble: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

South West Devon: Lab GAIN from Con - Con HOLD ✘

South West Norfolk: Con HOLD - Lab GAIN from Con ✘

Stalybridge & Hyde: Lab HOLD - Lab HOLD ✔

Telford: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Tonbridge: Con WIN (new seat) - Con WIN (new seat) ✔

Tottenham: Lab HOLD - Lab HOLD ✔

Truro & Falmouth: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Vale of Glamorgan: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine: SNP GAIN from Con - Con HOLD ✘

West Dorset: LDem GAIN from Con - LDem GAIN from Con ✔

Witney: LDem GAIN from Con - LDem GAIN from Con ✔

Wrexham: Lab GAIN from Con - Lab GAIN from Con ✔

Ynys Môn: Plaid GAIN from Con - Plaid GAIN from Con ✔

Politics is a funny old game and some of the predictions we were pretty confident about, surprised us.  For example, Leicester East was one of the most shocking results of the night.  Amid a sea of Labour gains, this urban constituency bucked the trend and fell to the Conservatives.  It was one of those seats where the Muslim population abandoned Labour, with independents polling strongly.  Two of those independents were former Labour MPs for Leicester East - Keith Vaz and Claudia Webbe - both of whom largely discredited and ridiculed.  They actually polled rather well, with Vaz fifth on 7.9 per cent and Webbe fourth with 11.8 per cent.

Chingford and Woodford Green was another seat in which we underestimated the impact of an independent candidate.  We thought Iain Duncan Smith's slender majority was nailed on for Labour to overturn, but a controversial Labour selection saved IDS.  Labour's hard left candidate from 2019 - Faiza Shaheen - was ousted in favour of one of Starmer's moderates, but she decided to wreak vengeance by standing as an independent.  That she did, ending up just 78 votes shy of pushing Labour into third, robbing them of an easy gain.

Rochdale was another seat we called wrong.  With Muslim anger still raw, we expected George Galloway to hold.  He didn't.  Labour must have thrown the kitchen sink at this one.

Still, 74.5 per cent accuracy with our forecasts is not bad.  We suspect the next general election will be eminently harder to predict.