Wednesday, 6 November 2024

CAN HE? WILL HE?


He most certainly can, but whether Trump will win again remains to be seen.  Polling going into election day is so tight nothing is certain, with all of the seven crucial swing states polling well within the margin of error.  It is impossible to confidently call any one of them for either candidate.

The seven so-called swing states are as follows, with the electoral college votes in brackets.  A candidate requires 270 electoral college votes to win the election.

Pennsylvania (19)
Georgia (16)
North Carolina (16)
Michigan (15)
Arizona (11)
Wisconsin (10)
Nevada (6)

The importance of winning Pennsylvania cannot be understated.  If Harris wins Pennsylvania and the neighbouring Rust Belt states of Michigan and Wisconsin - in addition to all the traditional blue states the Democrats would normally expect to win - she will be the 47th US president.

However, there is a very good chance that Trump could flip one or more of those traditional blue states, nullifying Harris's Rust Belt route to victory, as long as he takes swing states elsewhere.

So what are the other states that could come into play?  The two most likely states to flip to the other side are Virginia (13) and New Hampshire (4).  Both states have seen some impressive polling for Trump and he even took time out from his tour of swing states to hold a surprise rally in Virginia on Saturday.  He confidently announced to the packed rally that he was going to flip the state on Tuesday.  Virginia has been a blue state since 2008, while New Hampshire has been blue since 2004.

If Trump wins a landslide victory, a third state he could flip is New Jersey (14), a state that has been blue since 1992.

Beyond those three states, it is hard to imagine any more states flipping.  Trump is expected to poll very well in New York state (28) and, again, he has stated he will flip it.  However, New York state has been a blue state since 1988 and Democrats have had a huge majority there at every presidential election since 1996.  Highly unlikely to flip, but if it did then Trump's victory would likely be huge.

In the pursuit of fairness we should mention Iowa (6).  Trump flipped Iowa from blue in 2016 and held it in 2020 with a bigger vote share.  On Sunday a shock poll showed Harris leading Trump by three percentage points in Iowa and this was widely circulated by the establishment media outlet CNN.  The timing and prominence given to the poll suggested that the left-wing oriented broadcaster was trying to distract its viewers from other demoralising polls suggesting Trump could flip states elsewhere.  Another intention was to potentially distract Republicans from the key battlegrounds of Pennsylvania and elsewhere.  In any case, all other polls carried out in Iowa during the same period showed Trump leading Harris by between four and ten points.

The outcome of the election is not likely to be known until late on Wednesday or possibly longer.  The longer it drags on the more questions will be asked about the validity of the election.  Some counties in states such as Arizona, Georgia and Nevada are saying they won't be able to verify results for several days, up to a week and more.  When one considers that all these counties are led by Democrats, it opens up very serious questions about the counting process.

Our own United Kingdom general elections are counted and the results announced within hours of polls closing.  Even India - a country of 1.5billion people - can declare their electoral results within 24 hours.  The 2020 US presidential election was a joke, and this latest election looks set to follow suit.  The words 'banana republic' spring to mind.

We know that the party of the globalists will cheat in order to maintain their grip on power, this is a given.  As conservatives and libertarians, we've got to hope that this one is too big to rig...

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